FNUS75 KPUB 240818
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR WETMORE...PUEBLO COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
218 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRST PORTION OF A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FIRE AREA...WITH WINDS AT PUEBLO AND RED CREEK RAWS
VARYING OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10-20 MPH...
WHILE THE HIGHER SLOPES OF THE FIRE AND ABOVE ARE STILL SEEING WINDS
GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UP TO 50 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FIRE AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 50 MPH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

THE WIND FORECAST WILL BE CHALLENGING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD STALL OUT VERY NEAR OR OVER THE BURN AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING.  WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE FIRE AREA WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH...WHILE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE FIRE AREA MAINTAIN LIGHTER WINDS
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND
FORECASTS UPDATED AS NEEDED. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF THE BURN AREA AS LOW
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE FIRE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HUMIDITIES EXPECTED BY
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50F.
MAX HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    ERRATIC NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS
                    THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE FIRE AREA THROUGH
                    THE NIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(31 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH UNTIL 1000 THEN
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    50 AFTER 1000 AM...SPREADING INTO WESTERN PUEBLO
                    COUNTY BY NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING 5500 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER
                    1200.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO COUNTY SHERIFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121024.WETMO.01/PUB