FNUS71 KRNK 231716
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARE RUN...NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
116 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1150 EDT ON OCTOBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WAS HEADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THIS HIGH TO BRING SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OUR FORECAST SKY
PERCENTAGE CONSIDERS THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUDS AND REDUCES
THE PERCENTAGE BECAUSE OF THIS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT A BIT MORE
NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE THE INFLUENCE OF YIELDING TRANSPORT WINDS
THAT WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THOSE REALIZED TODAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL TREND JUST A FEW PERCENT LOWER
THAN THOSE OF TODAY.

TRANSPORT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF
OF THE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST. VALUES AROUND 7 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT A MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 2500 FEET IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE
45 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AND PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 3 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............13     19     16     16     20     27
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................70     65     62     59     58     56
RH..................48     58     64     68     71     72
20 FT WIND..........SW 4   SW 4   SW 4   W 4    W 4    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10     10     10     10

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 6 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............36     47     43     34     30     27
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................55     53     60     66     71     73
RH..................74     76     64     53     44     40
20 FT WIND..........W 5    W 4    W 4    W 4    W 3    W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...SAM LINDBLOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121024.MARER.01/RNK