FNUS75 KGJT 250342
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR MATHESON PRESERVE RX II...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
942 PM MDT WED OCT 24 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON THURSDAY...WITH A
REINFORCING COLD SHOT OF AIR DROPPING INTO NORTHERN UTAH. THIS
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSTABLE FOR GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE
SURFACE WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...HOWEVER THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THE AIR MASS
WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE AS SUNSET APPROACHES...WITH MORE STABLE AND
EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT. HOWEVER

.THURSDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH...INCREASING TO
                    5-10 MPH BY AROUND NOON...AND 7-12 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......50 IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 250 BY 1000
                    THEN AROUND 650 BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    7200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING CLOUDS...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 100.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE. BECOMING NORTHEAST 3-7 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......LESS THAN 100 UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING 350
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING TO
                    5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...RENEE JACK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121025.MATHE.02/GJT