FNUS74 KLIX 261525 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT F-02...U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 1. A SEABREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BACK FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH. 2. THERE WILL BE NO FOG TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. 3. AFTER REVIEWING OUR CALCULATION INPUT METHOD FOR STAGNATION INDEX...A WIND OF LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH NO RAIN RESULTS IN A STAGNATION INDEX OF 3. TABULAR FORECAST IS INDICATING WINDS AT SPOT LOCATION STAYING BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. AFTER 9 PM...WINDS ARE 10 MPH OR GREATER THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BASED ON THIS...THE FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON IS LIKELY TO INDICATE A STAGNATION INDEX OF 2 SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WILL HAVE WINDS 10 MPH OR GREATER. 4. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT/RH FORECAST. IF THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST FROM SLIDELL TO HATTIESBURG WERE TO MATERIALIZE NEAR OCEAN SPRINGS...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SATURDAY WOULD BE 70 WITH A DEWPOINT OF 40...AND A MINIMUM RH OF 33-34%...BUT THAT IS UNLIKELY. 5. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LOOKS CONSISTENT AND IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERE IS ALWAYS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE TRACK DEVIATING TO THE RIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR BOTH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD OCCUR. .TODAY... TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........22 22 22 22 22 22 17 17 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............73 76 80 81 81 82 83 81 RH..............73 66 58 54 53 51 47 51 DEWPOINT........64 64 64 63 62 62 61 61 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 2.3 2.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.9 MIX HGT (KM)....0.7 0.7 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 DISPERSION......10 66 66 86 86 86 87 87 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........17 49 49 49 49 49 49 52 52 52 52 52 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............79 75 73 71 69 67 66 64 62 60 59 57 RH..............54 62 66 71 73 75 73 75 78 78 78 80 DEWPOINT........61 61 61 61 60 59 57 56 55 53 52 51 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 15 15 15 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 MIX HGT (KM)....1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.10 16 16 16 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 DISPERSION......87 78 62 62 59 44 25 24 24 24 16 16 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .SATURDAY... TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........52 57 57 57 57 57 57 54 54 54 30 30 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............55 55 59 62 66 66 67 67 67 68 68 66 RH..............83 80 67 60 52 52 50 50 49 47 45 48 DEWPOINT........50 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 46 46 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.3 3.3 MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 22 17 17 17 17 17 17 21 21 TRANS SPD (M/S).10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 DISPERSION......16 24 24 24 23 35 35 44 44 44 61 61 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS/DESTRI REQUESTED BY...SAMI GRAY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121026.CPTF0.01/LIX