FNUS75 KBOU 011119 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATL PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 508 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1539 MDT ON OCTOBER 31. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT ACROSS COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE DAY BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER EXPOSED LOCATIONS AND RIDGES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 65. MIN HUMIDITY........17-24 PERCENT WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 7100-8100 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29. MAX HUMIDITY........47%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........27%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7400-8400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 8-9 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/01-05 8 0 0 27 60 W 8 13 5 1 W 17 443 WSW 12 4255 P 11/01-06 12 0 0 28 58 W 8 13 5 1 W 17 422 W 13 4539 P 11/01-07 12 0 0 29 57 W 8 13 5 1 W 17 430 W 13 4874 P 11/01-08 12 0 0 33 50 W 8 14 5 1 W 17 438 W 14 5209 P 11/01-09 12 0 0 38 42 W 9 15 5 1 WSW 16 446 W 14 5543 P 11/01-10 12 0 0 44 34 W 10 17 5 1 WSW 17 3042 W 18 69578 G 11/01-11 12 0 0 50 27 W 13 20 5 1 SW 18 5638 W 23133612 V 11/01-12 29 0 0 56 21 W 14 22 5 1 SW 20 8235 W 28197647 E 11/01-13 29 0 0 58 20 W 15 24 5 1 SW 23 8196 W 28198919 E 11/01-14 29 0 0 58 19 W 16 26 4 1 SW 26 8157 W 29200191 E 11/01-15 36 0 0 56 20 W 16 25 4 1 SW 31 8119 W 29201463 E 11/01-16 36 0 0 53 23 W 14 23 3 1 SW 35 6871 W 26162242 E 11/01-17 36 0 0 49 28 W 12 18 3 1 SW 39 5624 W 24123022 V 11/01-18 59 0 0 45 32 W 9 15 2 1 WSW 41 4377 W 22 83801 G 11/01-19 59 0 0 41 36 W 8 14 2 1 WSW 41 3073 W 20 57815 F 11/01-20 59 0 0 38 39 W 9 14 2 1 WSW 40 1769 W 17 31829 P 11/01-21 59 0 0 36 40 W 9 15 2 1 W 39 465 W 15 5842 P 11/01-22 59 0 0 35 41 W 9 15 2 1 WSW 38 436 W 16 6021 P 11/01-23 59 0 0 34 43 W 10 16 2 1 WSW 38 406 W 17 6200 P 11/02-00 55 0 0 33 45 W 10 16 2 1 WSW 39 377 W 20 6379 P 11/02-01 55 0 0 33 44 W 10 17 2 1 WSW 43 387 W 18 6320 P 11/02-02 55 0 0 33 43 W 10 17 2 1 WSW 46 397 W 18 6261 P 11/02-03 55 0 0 32 43 W 10 16 2 1 WSW 49 406 W 17 6202 P 11/02-04 55 0 0 31 44 W 10 16 2 1 WSW 52 398 W 15 5377 P 11/02-05 55 0 0 29 47 W 9 15 2 1 W 53 390 W 14 4551 P 11/02-06 43 1 0 29 46 W 9 15 2 1 W 53 381 W 12 3726 P 11/02-07 43 1 0 30 45 W 9 14 2 1 W 53 1092 W 13 12902 P 11/02-08 43 1 0 31 44 W 8 14 2 1 W 53 1803 W 13 22078 P 11/02-09 43 1 0 34 40 W 8 13 2 1 W 52 2514 W 14 31254 P 11/02-10 43 1 0 38 34 W 9 15 2 1 W 49 4492 W 17 75066 G 11/02-11 43 1 0 42 30 W 10 16 2 1 W 46 6471 W 20118877 V 11/02-12 54 6 1 45 27 W 12 18 2 1 W 44 8450 W 22162689 E 11/02-13 54 6 1 46 27 W 12 20 2 1 W 43 8554 W 22163544 E 11/02-14 54 6 1 46 28 W 12 20 2 1 W 41 8658 W 22164399 E 11/02-15 54 6 1 45 29 W 12 18 2 1 W 40 8762 W 22165254 E 11/02-16 54 6 1 43 33 W 10 17 2 1 W 38 7814 W 21143779 V 11/02-17 54 6 1 40 38 W 9 15 2 1 W 35 6867 W 21122303 V 11/02-18 48 5 1 37 44 W 8 13 2 1 W 32 5920 W 20100828 V 11/02-19 48 5 1 35 48 W 7 7 2 1 W 30 4119 W 15 68072 G 11/02-20 48 5 1 32 55 W 6 6 2 1 W 29 2318 W 10 35316 P 11/02-21 48 5 1 31 58 W 5 5 2 1 WNW 28 517 W 6 2561 P 11/02-22 48 5 1 30 61 W 3 3 2 1 W 28 485 W 5 2189 P 11/02-23 48 5 1 29 63 WSW 3 3 2 1 W 28 454 W 5 1817 P 11/03-00 41 3 1 28 66 SW 3 3 2 1 W 29 423 WSW 3 1445 P 11/03-01 41 3 1 28 65 SW 5 5 2 1 W 30 415 WSW 5 1808 P 11/03-02 41 3 1 28 64 WSW 5 5 2 1 WNW 30 407 W 6 2172 P 11/03-03 41 3 1 27 66 WSW 6 6 2 1 WNW 30 399 W 7 2535 P 11/03-04 41 3 1 27 64 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 30 410 W 8 2695 P 11/03-05 41 3 1 27 62 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 30 421 W 8 2854 P 11/03-06 16 2 0 27 60 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 29 433 W 8 3013 P 11/03-07 16 2 0 28 57 W 6 6 2 1 WNW 28 1183 W 9 11644 P 11/03-08 16 2 0 30 52 W 7 7 3 1 WNW 26 1933 W 12 20275 P 11/03-09 16 2 0 32 47 W 7 7 3 1 NW 25 2683 W 13 28906 P 11/03-10 15 2 0 36 39 W 7 7 3 1 NW 24 3966 W 14 53909 F 11/03-11 15 2 0 39 34 W 8 13 2 1 NW 24 5248 WNW 16 78911 G 11/03-12 15 0 0 42 30 W 8 13 2 1 NW 24 6531 WNW 18103913 V 11/03-13 15 0 0 43 29 W 8 13 2 1 NW 26 6633 WNW 18103629 V 11/03-14 15 0 0 43 30 W 8 13 2 1 NW 30 6736 WNW 17103345 V 11/03-15 15 0 0 42 32 W 8 13 2 1 NW 33 6838 WNW 17103060 V 11/03-16 14 0 0 40 34 W 8 13 2 1 NW 35 4717 WNW 15 70266 G 11/03-17 14 0 0 37 39 W 8 13 3 1 NW 36 2596 WNW 14 37473 P 11/03-18 14 0 0 34 43 W 8 13 3 1 NW 36 475 W 12 4679 P 11/03-19 14 0 0 31 48 W 8 13 4 1 NW 35 469 W 12 4498 P 11/03-20 14 0 0 29 52 W 8 13 5 1 NW 35 463 W 10 4318 P 11/03-21 15 0 0 28 53 W 8 13 5 1 NW 35 456 W 10 4138 P 11/03-22 15 0 0 27 54 W 8 13 5 1 NW 35 452 W 12 4334 P 11/03-23 15 0 0 27 53 W 8 13 4 1 NW 36 448 W 12 4531 P 11/04-00 15 0 0 27 53 W 8 13 3 1 NW 37 444 W 13 4728 P 11/04-01 17 0 0 26 55 W 8 14 3 1 NW 37 439 W 13 4869 P 11/04-02 18 0 0 26 55 W 9 14 2 1 NW 37 435 W 14 5011 P 11/04-03 20 0 0 26 55 W 9 15 2 1 NW 36 430 W 14 5153 P 11/04-04 21 0 0 25 57 W 9 15 2 1 NW 36 434 W 15 5434 P 11/04-05 23 0 0 25 57 W 10 16 2 1 NW 37 438 W 15 5714 P 11/04-06 24 0 0 26 55 W 10 16 2 1 NW 37 442 W 16 5995 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121031.FERNL.01/BOU