FNUS75 KGJT 011640
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VALLECITO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1040 AM MDT THU NOV 1 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0945 MDT ON NOVEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
AFFECTING NORTHWEST COLORADO. HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLORADO WILL INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL NOT
BECOME STRONG. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A
SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON FRIDAY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH OF THE SAN JUAN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BY 2-5 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S
VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

.TODAY (BEFORE SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50% HIGH THIN CLOUDS).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. INCREASING TO 8-10 MPH
                    AFTER 1330...WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
                    POSSIBLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. MAY REACH INTO THE VERY GOOD
                    CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN 1530 AND
                    1630.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 18 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......QUICKLY BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40% HIGH CLOUDS).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER 1100. INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING GOOD BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...KELLY CORNWALL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121101.VALLE.01/GJT