FNUS75 KGJT 022040
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VALLECITO...SJNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 PM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1333 MDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S READINGS. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS
THEN EXPECTED BOTH FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED.

.SATURDAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20% HIGH CLOUDS).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AFTER 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200 MDT...THEN FAIR...INCREASING
                    TO GOOD BETWEEN 1430 AND 1630.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (BELOW 5000 KNOT-FT)
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO BELOW 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 6 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AFTER 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200 MST...THEN BECOMING FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TEN-DAY OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THEN BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REGION WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER THE
DETAILS IN THE TIMING...AMPLIFICATION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN. THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT THE FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. THEN THE UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS EAST. BUT TIMING...AREAL EXTENT AND AMOUNTS REMAIN
DIFFICULT.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...GABE VERA
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121102.VALLE.01/GJT