FNUS75 KRIW 021321
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
721 AM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOVING OVER THE BURN SITE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INCREASED...WITH A SLOW REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
THE BURN SITE...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DOES EXIST.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-40.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-53 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BY 1000. GUSTS UP TO
                    20 MPH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 12-17 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52600-54300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-24.
MAX HUMIDITY........79-83 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500-2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (21900-43100 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-12 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 12-17 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (18600-32200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121102.FALLS.02/RIW