FNUS75 KRIW 021907
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
107 PM MDT FRI NOV 2 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON NOVEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BURN SITE IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCREASING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INCREASED...WITH A SLOW
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE BURN SITE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-40.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-42 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 8-12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52600-54300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....21-24.
MAX HUMIDITY........77-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 2-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 12 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (21900-43100 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-41 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 17 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (18600-32200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121102.FALLS.02/RIW