FNUS75 KBOU 041217 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 451 AM MST SUN NOV 4 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1826 MST ON NOVEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A BIT MORE WIND TO THE FIRE AREA THAN YESTERDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER PARTS OF THE FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY FROM ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48. MIN HUMIDITY........29%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 27. MAX HUMIDITY........75%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1700-2700 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 2400-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 0100...THEN 1400 FT AGL UNTIL 0200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR UNTIL 2100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 2300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 2400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 4700-5700 FT AGL AFTER 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/04-04 33 0 0 32 45 W 13 20 2 1 NW 39 1221 W 24 26500 P 11/04-05 51 0 0 32 45 W 13 21 2 1 NW 40 1324 W 26 30621 P 11/04-06 51 0 0 32 44 W 14 22 2 1 NW 41 1791 WNW 28 43446 F 11/04-07 51 0 0 32 43 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 41 2259 WNW 29 56272 F 11/04-08 59 0 0 35 38 W 16 25 2 1 NNW 43 2726 WNW 29 69097 G 11/04-09 59 0 0 40 33 W 15 25 2 1 NNW 41 3761 WNW 30 98070 G 11/04-10 59 0 0 44 31 W 15 23 2 1 NNW 40 4796 WNW 30127044 V 11/04-11 76 2 0 47 30 W 14 22 2 1 NW 39 5831 NW 31156017 E 11/04-12 76 2 0 48 29 W 15 24 2 1 NW 41 5723 NW 31156370 E 11/04-13 76 2 0 47 31 W 16 26 2 1 NW 44 5615 WNW 32156722 E 11/04-14 76 2 0 45 34 W 17 28 2 1 NW 46 5507 WNW 33157075 E 11/04-15 76 2 0 43 37 W 16 26 2 1 NW 47 4885 WNW 31133589 V 11/04-16 76 2 0 39 45 WNW 15 24 2 1 NNW 47 4263 WNW 29110103 V 11/04-17 63 2 0 36 52 WNW 14 22 2 1 NNW 47 3641 WNW 28 86617 G 11/04-18 63 2 0 34 56 W 13 21 2 1 NNW 47 2960 WNW 25 66773 G 11/04-19 63 2 0 32 59 W 13 20 2 1 NNW 47 2278 WNW 22 46929 F 11/04-20 55 2 0 31 61 W 12 18 2 1 NNW 47 1596 WNW 20 27085 P 11/04-21 55 2 0 30 64 W 10 17 2 1 NNW 47 2171 WNW 21 41091 F 11/04-22 55 2 0 29 68 W 9 15 2 1 NNW 48 2746 WNW 23 55097 F 11/04-23 38 5 1 29 69 W 9 15 2 1 NNW 48 3322 NW 24 69103 G 11/05-00 38 5 1 29 68 W 9 16 2 1 NNW 51 2380 WNW 21 48316 F 11/05-01 38 5 1 28 69 W 10 17 2 1 N 52 1439 WNW 18 27529 P 11/05-02 38 5 1 28 69 W 12 18 2 1 N 52 497 WNW 16 6741 P 11/05-03 38 5 1 27 72 W 12 18 2 1 N 52 496 WNW 16 6899 P 11/05-04 38 5 1 27 73 W 12 18 2 1 N 51 494 WNW 16 7057 P 11/05-05 38 0 0 27 75 W 12 18 2 1 NNW 49 493 WNW 17 7215 P 11/05-06 38 0 0 28 73 W 13 20 2 1 NNW 47 852 WNW 20 16507 P 11/05-07 38 0 0 30 68 W 14 22 3 1 NNW 44 1211 WNW 23 25800 P 11/05-08 38 0 0 33 61 W 15 24 3 1 NNW 41 1570 WNW 25 35092 P 11/05-09 38 0 0 37 53 W 15 23 3 1 NNW 41 2781 WNW 25 62616 G 11/05-10 38 0 0 42 44 W 14 22 2 1 NNW 43 3993 NW 26 90140 G 11/05-11 18 0 0 46 38 WNW 13 21 2 1 NNW 43 5204 NW 26117664 V 11/05-12 18 0 0 49 34 WNW 12 18 2 1 NNW 44 5747 NW 25122898 V 11/05-13 18 0 0 49 34 WNW 12 17 2 1 NNW 44 6290 NW 24128131 V 11/05-14 18 0 0 49 34 WNW 10 16 2 1 NNW 45 6833 NW 23133365 V 11/05-15 18 0 0 46 37 WNW 10 16 2 1 NNW 45 5402 NW 20100106 V 11/05-16 18 0 0 42 43 W 9 16 2 1 NNW 46 3972 WNW 17 66847 G 11/05-17 20 0 0 39 48 W 10 16 2 1 NNW 45 2541 WNW 15 33588 P 11/05-18 20 0 0 36 54 W 13 20 2 1 NNW 44 1956 WNW 17 26874 P 11/05-19 20 0 0 35 56 W 15 23 2 1 NNW 41 1371 W 18 20160 P 11/05-20 20 0 0 33 61 W 16 25 2 1 NNW 39 786 W 20 13447 P 11/05-21 20 0 0 33 61 W 16 25 2 1 NNW 38 737 W 20 12509 P 11/05-22 20 0 0 32 64 W 15 23 2 1 NNW 38 687 W 20 11571 P 11/05-23 19 0 0 32 63 W 14 22 2 1 NNW 38 638 W 20 10633 P 11/06-00 19 0 0 32 63 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 38 639 W 18 10491 P 11/06-01 19 0 0 32 63 W 16 26 2 1 NNW 38 640 W 18 10348 P 11/06-02 19 0 0 32 62 W 17 28 2 1 NW 38 641 W 18 10206 P 11/06-03 19 0 0 31 64 W 16 25 2 1 NW 37 549 W 18 8713 P 11/06-04 19 0 0 30 66 W 14 23 2 1 NW 36 457 W 18 7219 P 11/06-05 16 0 0 30 66 W 13 21 2 1 NW 35 365 W 18 5726 P 11/06-06 16 0 0 31 64 W 14 21 2 1 NW 35 959 W 21 19422 P 11/06-07 16 0 0 34 57 W 14 23 2 1 NNW 35 1552 WNW 23 33118 P 11/06-08 16 0 0 38 49 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 36 2146 WNW 25 46814 F 11/06-09 16 0 0 44 39 W 14 22 2 1 NNW 36 4271 WNW 25 96313 G 11/06-10 16 0 0 49 33 W 12 20 2 1 NW 38 6396 WNW 26145813 V 11/06-11 16 0 0 53 28 W 10 16 2 1 NW 39 8522 NW 26195312 E 11/06-12 16 0 0 53 28 W 9 15 2 1 NW 40 8388 WNW 26191712 E 11/06-13 16 0 0 53 29 W 9 15 2 1 NW 41 8254 WNW 26188112 E 11/06-14 16 0 0 53 29 W 9 15 2 1 NW 44 8121 WNW 26184511 E 11/06-15 16 0 0 51 31 W 9 16 2 1 NW 45 6633 WNW 25146801 V 11/06-16 16 0 0 47 36 W 10 16 2 1 NW 46 5146 WNW 24109090 V 11/06-17 12 0 0 42 43 W 10 16 2 1 NW 47 3659 WNW 23 71379 G 11/06-18 12 0 0 38 50 W 10 16 2 1 NW 48 2613 WNW 21 49927 F 11/06-19 12 0 0 36 53 W 10 16 2 1 NW 48 1566 W 18 28475 P 11/06-20 12 0 0 35 54 W 9 15 2 1 NNW 47 520 W 16 7023 P 11/06-21 12 0 0 34 56 W 9 15 2 1 NW 47 498 W 16 6900 P 11/06-22 12 0 0 34 55 W 9 15 2 1 NW 46 476 W 16 6778 P 11/06-23 5 0 0 33 56 W 9 15 2 1 NW 45 454 W 17 6655 P 11/07-00 7 0 0 33 55 W 9 15 3 1 NW 44 446 W 17 6796 P 11/07-01 8 0 0 32 56 W 10 16 4 1 NW 43 438 W 18 6938 P 11/07-02 10 0 0 32 55 W 10 16 5 1 NW 41 430 W 18 7080 P 11/07-03 11 0 0 31 57 W 10 17 5 1 NW 40 426 W 20 7267 P 11/07-04 13 0 0 31 56 W 12 18 5 1 NW 39 422 W 21 7455 P 11/07-05 14 0 0 32 53 W 12 18 5 1 NW 38 419 W 21 7642 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121103.FERNL.01/BOU