FNUS75 KRIW 031335
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
735 AM MDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON NOVEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE CURRENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE BURN SITE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUD CONDITIONS GENERALLY
LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TO BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND. THESE PERIODS OF GUSTY
WIND WILL LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AND SHOULD AGAIN
WEAKEN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED
FOR SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) BY 1300.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-44 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH AFTER 1100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH
                    AFTER 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (46800-65000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-29.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-78 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (47600-59500 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-42.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-52 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST NORTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH WITH STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED AFTER
                    1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (54700-64100 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121103.FALLS.01/RIW