FNUS75 KRIW 032330
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
530 PM MDT SAT NOV 3 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1715 MDT ON NOVEMBER 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE FIRE SITE LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE SITE. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT CERTAIN LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THIS STORM SYSTEM PULLS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL
                    FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.NEAR ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (21400 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) WITH OCCASIONAL
                    FLURRIES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-10 MPH. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
                    AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST
                    15-20 MPH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR...BECOMING FAIR (43200 KNOT-FT) BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES IN THE MORNING. LOWS
AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW. LOWS
IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121103.FALLS.02/RIW