FNUS75 KGJT 052148
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VALLECITO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
248 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1407 MST ON NOVEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS A
RESULT...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT BASIN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES INCREASING FRIDAY.
SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INITIALLY...BUT WILL
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FAIRLY QUICKLY AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FIRE SITE.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FIRE SITE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SNOW LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1100-9900 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
x09x09    SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING FAIR BRIEFLY FROM 1200 TO 1500
x09x09    OTHERWISE...POOR(LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
x09x09    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS 31-41. HIGHS 55-65. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 30-40. HIGHS 52-62. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS
30-40. HIGHS 43-53. SOUTH WINDS 12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS 25-35.
HIGHS 29-39. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

$$

FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...DURANGO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20121105.VALLE.01/GJT