FNUS75 KBOU 071343 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 643 AM MST WED NOV 7 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1748 MST ON NOVEMBER 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL... INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUATION OF MILD DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BURN SITE. AT THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL BEFORE IT ENDS SOMETIME SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-57. MIN HUMIDITY........13-15%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 3300-4300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MAX HUMIDITY........42%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 16-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1800...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57. MIN HUMIDITY........21%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...THEN 1100-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 5200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 8900 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 12500-12700 FT AGL UNTIL 1500...THEN 9400 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 6400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-18 MPH. .SATURDAY...COLDER...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-13 MPH. .VETERANS DAY...COLDER...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 12. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/07-06 2 0 0 35 38 W 17 25 5 1 WNW 26 522 W 18 8664 P 11/07-07 2 0 0 38 34 W 17 26 5 1 WNW 25 699 W 20 12218 P 11/07-08 2 0 0 41 30 W 18 28 5 1 WNW 25 875 W 21 15772 P 11/07-09 2 0 0 45 25 W 20 29 5 1 W 24 1880 W 24 44998 F 11/07-10 2 0 0 49 20 W 21 30 5 1 W 23 2884 W 28 74224 G 11/07-11 1 0 0 53 17 W 21 31 5 1 WSW 23 3888 W 31 103451 V 11/07-12 1 0 0 55 15 W 21 30 5 1 WSW 25 4183 W 30 107036 V 11/07-13 1 0 0 55 14 W 20 29 5 1 WSW 29 4478 W 29 110621 V 11/07-14 1 0 0 54 15 W 18 28 5 1 WSW 30 4774 W 28 114207 V 11/07-15 1 0 0 50 17 W 17 26 4 1 WSW 31 3957 W 26 92318 G 11/07-16 1 0 0 47 20 W 17 25 4 1 WSW 30 3140 W 25 70428 G 11/07-17 1 0 0 43 23 W 17 26 3 1 WSW 28 2323 W 24 48539 F 11/07-18 1 0 0 40 27 W 18 28 3 1 WSW 25 1671 W 25 35288 P 11/07-19 1 0 0 38 29 W 21 30 4 1 W 23 1018 W 26 22036 P 11/07-20 1 0 0 37 31 W 22 33 4 1 W 22 365 W 28 8784 P 11/07-21 1 0 0 36 33 W 23 35 4 1 W 21 381 W 29 9458 P 11/07-22 1 0 0 35 34 W 23 35 5 1 W 20 397 W 29 10131 P 11/07-23 10 0 0 34 36 W 23 35 5 1 W 21 413 W 30 10805 P 11/08-00 10 0 0 34 37 W 23 35 5 1 W 22 407 W 30 10450 P 11/08-01 10 0 0 34 38 W 23 35 5 1 W 24 401 W 29 10095 P 11/08-02 10 0 0 33 39 W 22 33 5 1 W 26 394 W 29 9741 P 11/08-03 10 0 0 33 39 W 21 31 5 1 W 25 384 W 26 8796 P 11/08-04 10 0 0 32 41 W 20 29 4 1 W 24 373 W 24 7852 P 11/08-05 16 0 0 32 41 W 17 26 4 1 W 24 363 W 22 6907 P 11/08-06 16 0 0 33 42 WSW 14 20 4 1 WSW 25 706 W 18 8534 P 11/08-07 16 0 0 36 40 WSW 10 15 3 1 WSW 28 1050 WSW 14 10160 P 11/08-08 16 0 0 40 36 WSW 8 8 3 1 WSW 30 1393 WSW 9 11787 P 11/08-09 16 0 0 45 31 WSW 8 8 3 1 WSW 35 5151 WSW 16 113186 V 11/08-10 16 0 0 51 25 SW 9 9 3 1 WSW 38 8909 WSW 22 214585 E 11/08-11 25 0 0 55 22 SW 10 16 3 1 WSW 41 12667 WSW 29 315984 E 11/08-12 25 0 0 57 21 SW 12 16 3 1 WSW 43 12601 WSW 30 322440 E 11/08-13 25 0 0 57 21 SW 12 17 3 1 WSW 44 12535 WSW 30 328895 E 11/08-14 25 0 0 55 23 SW 12 17 3 1 WSW 45 12469 SW 31 335351 E 11/08-15 25 0 0 51 27 SW 12 16 3 1 WSW 46 9431 SW 30 252213 E 11/08-16 25 0 0 47 31 SW 10 16 3 1 WSW 47 6392 SW 30 169075 E 11/08-17 31 0 0 42 38 SW 10 16 3 1 WSW 47 3354 SW 30 85937 G 11/08-18 31 0 0 38 44 SW 10 16 3 1 WSW 47 2530 SW 29 64326 G 11/08-19 31 0 0 34 50 WSW 12 17 3 1 WSW 45 1707 SW 28 42715 F 11/08-20 31 0 0 31 56 WSW 13 20 3 1 WSW 43 883 SW 28 21103 P 11/08-21 31 0 0 29 59 WSW 14 21 3 1 WSW 41 964 WSW 30 25743 P 11/08-22 31 0 0 28 59 WSW 14 22 3 1 SW 39 1045 WSW 33 30382 P 11/08-23 35 1 0 28 58 WSW 15 23 3 1 SW 38 1126 WSW 36 35022 P 11/09-00 35 1 0 28 57 WSW 15 23 3 1 SW 35 1302 WSW 39 44659 F 11/09-01 35 1 0 28 57 WSW 15 23 3 1 SSW 31 1478 WSW 41 54297 F 11/09-02 35 1 0 28 58 WSW 16 24 3 1 SSW 29 1654 WSW 45 63934 G 11/09-03 35 1 0 27 61 WSW 18 28 3 1 SSW 29 1723 WSW 48 72265 G 11/09-04 35 1 0 26 64 WSW 21 30 3 1 SW 31 1792 WSW 52 80596 G 11/09-05 32 1 0 26 65 WSW 22 33 3 1 SW 32 1861 WSW 55 88926 G 11/09-06 32 1 0 28 61 WSW 22 33 3 1 SW 31 2010 WSW 54 94794 G 11/09-07 32 1 0 31 55 WSW 22 33 3 1 SSW 30 2159 WSW 54 100662 V 11/09-08 32 1 0 36 46 WSW 21 31 3 1 SSW 30 2309 WSW 53 106530 V 11/09-09 32 1 0 41 38 WSW 21 30 3 1 SSW 30 3639 WSW 54 170263 E 11/09-10 32 1 0 46 32 SW 20 29 2 1 SW 32 4969 WSW 54 233996 E 11/09-11 67 1 0 49 29 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 37 6299 WSW 54 297729 E 11/09-12 67 1 0 50 28 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 45 6584 WSW 53 302033 E 11/09-13 67 1 0 49 30 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 54 6868 WSW 52 306338 E 11/09-14 67 1 0 48 31 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 61 7152 SW 49 310642 E 11/09-15 67 1 0 46 34 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 64 6694 SW 49 288328 E 11/09-16 67 1 0 44 38 SW 16 24 2 1 SW 66 6235 SW 49 266014 E 11/09-17 79 14 3 41 43 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 66 5777 SW 48 243700 E 11/09-18 79 14 3 39 46 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 66 4333 SW 41 174121 E 11/09-19 79 14 3 37 50 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 67 2890 SW 35 104541 V 11/09-20 79 14 3 35 54 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 67 1446 SW 28 34962 P 11/09-21 79 14 3 35 54 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 68 1607 SW 33 47266 F 11/09-22 79 14 3 34 56 SW 12 17 2 1 SW 69 1767 SW 38 59570 F 11/09-23 83 22 4 33 58 SW 15 23 2 1 SSW 70 1927 SW 43 71874 G 11/10-00 83 22 4 32 60 SW 15 23 2 1 SSW 74 1870 SW 46 73613 G 11/10-01 83 22 4 31 61 SW 15 23 2 1 SSW 76 1812 WSW 48 75352 G 11/10-02 83 22 4 30 63 SW 15 23 2 1 SSW 76 1755 WSW 51 77091 G 11/10-03 83 22 4 29 66 SW 15 23 2 1 SSW 71 1778 WSW 48 74232 G 11/10-04 83 22 4 28 69 SW 15 23 3 1 SSW 62 1801 WSW 46 71374 G 11/10-05 90 38 16 27 71 WSW 14 21 3 1 SSW 53 1824 WSW 44 68515 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121106.FERNL.01/BOU