FNUS76 KPQR 071756
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR JIM S CREEK HAND PILES...USFS WNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
956 AM PST WED NOV 7 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PST ON NOVEMBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...MUCH COLDER THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE WILLAMETTE
NF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW SETTLES OFF THE NORTH OREGON COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
THEN DROPS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW WILL GIVE AN INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO 2500
FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE CASCADES FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE THREAT OF SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY.


NOTE...FORECAST TEMPS/RH ARE FOR THE ACTUAL LOCATION AND NOT FOR
EMIGRANT RAWS.



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
CWR (%).............0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45 TO 48.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 TO 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO 5 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    THEN NORTHWEST 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH.

I BELIEVE THE GENERAL WIND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OVERCOME THE LOCAL UP-SLOPE WIND...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PILES
ARE UN-SHELTERED AND THE GENERAL LOCATION IS NEAR THE TOP OF A
RIDGE. THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE THAT SLOPE-WIND COULD PREVAIL
SHOULD THE POST-FRONTAL WIND BE MUCH WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.


TIME (PST)      11 AM     1 PM      3 PM      5 PM

TEMP............44-46     46-48     44-46     43-45
RH..............72-77     64-68     55-60     58-63
20 FT WIND......SE-S 2-5  W-NW 3-7  NW 6-11   NW 5-10
   MAX GUST.....  7         10       18         15


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
                    OVERNIGHT.
CWR (%).............0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-33.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-94 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN
                    BECOMING DRAINAGE TO 5 MPH BY 1900.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL NEAR
                    3000 FEET.
CWR (%).............10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38 BOTTOM TO 35 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH OR UP-SLOPE TO 5 MPH. WIND BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.


...EXTENDED FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL 2500 TO 3000 FEET. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. MINIMUM RH ABOVE 70 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. MINIMUM RH 65 TO 75 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 40. MINIMUM RH 50-60 PERCENT.


$$
FORECASTER...WEISHAAR
REQUESTED BY...ALISON RICHARDS
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121107.JIMSC.01/PQR