FNUS75 KBOU 091356 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 655 AM MST FRI NOV 9 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1720 MST ON NOVEMBER 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING MUCH COLDER AND PERIODS OF SNOW. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER BUT CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6100-7100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35-50 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 45-55 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2300...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26. MAX HUMIDITY........78%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11-21 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-5300 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 1900-2900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 35-55 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1800. GOOD AFTER 0400. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30. MIN HUMIDITY........50%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 9000-9800 FT AGL AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 35-50 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0600. EXCELLENT AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................55 PERCENT DECREASING TO 45 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/09-06 55 2 0 29 75 WSW 18 26 2 1 SW 43 1384 WSW 38 48193 F 11/09-07 55 2 0 32 70 WSW 18 28 2 1 SW 41 1764 WSW 41 65728 G 11/09-08 56 2 0 36 61 WSW 20 30 2 1 SW 41 2143 WSW 45 83263 G 11/09-09 56 2 0 41 51 WSW 22 32 2 1 SW 41 3407 WSW 48151644 E 11/09-10 56 2 0 44 44 WSW 23 35 2 1 SSW 43 4671 WSW 52220024 E 11/09-11 74 10 2 48 37 WSW 24 37 2 1 SSW 46 5935 WSW 56288405 E 11/09-12 74 10 2 49 35 WSW 24 36 2 1 SSW 52 6485 WSW 53298657 E 11/09-13 74 10 2 49 34 SW 23 35 2 1 SW 58 7035 SW 51308909 E 11/09-14 74 10 2 48 34 SW 21 31 2 1 SW 62 7584 SW 48319161 E 11/09-15 74 10 2 46 37 SW 17 25 2 1 SW 62 6808 SW 46273190 E 11/09-16 74 10 2 44 39 SW 13 20 2 1 SW 61 6032 SW 43227219 E 11/09-17 95 20 4 41 44 SW 10 16 2 1 SW 59 5256 SW 39181248 E 11/09-18 95 20 4 39 48 SW 10 16 2 1 SW 59 4212 SW 39143413 V 11/09-19 95 20 4 37 52 SW 13 18 2 1 SW 61 3168 SW 38105579 V 11/09-20 95 20 4 36 54 SW 15 23 2 1 SW 62 2124 SW 37 67745 G 11/09-21 95 20 4 34 59 SW 17 25 2 1 SW 66 2019 SW 43 73678 G 11/09-22 95 20 4 33 63 WSW 20 29 2 1 SW 69 1914 WSW 48 79612 G 11/09-23 99 45 22 31 69 WSW 21 31 2 1 SW 74 1808 WSW 54 85546 G 11/10-00 99 45 22 31 68 WSW 22 33 2 1 SW 79 1860 WSW 54 87787 G 11/10-01 99 45 22 30 70 WSW 23 35 2 1 SW 84 1911 WSW 54 90028 G 11/10-02 99 45 22 29 72 WSW 22 33 2 1 SW 83 1963 WSW 54 92269 G 11/10-03 99 45 22 28 74 WSW 18 28 2 1 SSW 73 2022 WSW 44 76531 G 11/10-04 99 45 22 27 76 W 14 21 3 1 SSW 58 2082 WSW 35 60793 G 11/10-05 99 73 57 26 78 W 10 16 3 1 SSW 46 2141 W 24 45055 F 11/10-06 99 73 57 26 75 W 9 14 3 1 SSW 44 2703 WSW 30 75939 G 11/10-07 99 73 57 27 69 W 9 14 3 1 SSW 46 3266 WSW 36106824 V 11/10-08 99 73 57 28 63 WSW 10 16 3 1 SSW 52 3828 WSW 41137708 V 11/10-09 99 73 57 29 57 WSW 12 18 3 1 SSW 58 4663 WSW 44181912 E 11/10-10 99 73 57 30 53 WSW 13 21 2 1 SSW 63 5498 SW 46226116 E 11/10-11 98 66 47 30 51 WSW 14 22 2 1 SSW 66 6333 SW 49270320 E 11/10-12 98 66 47 30 50 WSW 14 22 2 1 SSW 64 7501 SW 44275891 E 11/10-13 98 66 47 29 51 WSW 14 21 3 1 SW 59 8669 WSW 39281462 E 11/10-14 98 66 47 27 55 WSW 13 21 3 1 SW 53 9836 WSW 33287033 E 11/10-15 98 66 47 25 59 WSW 13 20 3 1 SW 48 9404 WSW 35279303 E 11/10-16 98 66 47 24 60 W 12 20 3 1 SW 43 8972 WSW 35271572 E 11/10-17 96 70 53 22 65 W 12 18 3 1 WSW 40 8540 WSW 36263842 E 11/10-18 96 70 53 20 69 W 10 17 3 1 WSW 40 7436 WSW 32216370 E 11/10-19 96 70 53 18 74 W 10 16 3 1 WSW 43 6332 W 30168899 E 11/10-20 96 70 53 17 75 W 9 15 3 1 WSW 45 5227 W 26121427 V 11/10-21 96 70 53 16 77 W 9 15 3 1 WSW 45 4909 W 25107006 V 11/10-22 96 70 53 15 78 W 9 15 3 1 WSW 45 4590 W 23 92585 G 11/10-23 94 65 45 14 80 W 9 15 3 1 WSW 45 4272 W 21 78164 G 11/11-00 94 65 45 13 82 W 8 14 3 1 WSW 46 4135 W 21 74463 G 11/11-01 94 65 45 11 88 W 8 8 3 1 WSW 47 3998 W 21 70762 G 11/11-02 94 65 45 11 87 W 7 7 3 1 WSW 46 3861 W 20 67061 G 11/11-03 94 65 45 11 86 W 7 7 3 1 WSW 41 4090 W 21 71743 G 11/11-04 94 65 45 11 85 W 7 7 3 1 WSW 36 4320 W 21 76425 G 11/11-05 84 48 24 11 84 W 7 7 3 1 WSW 31 4549 W 21 81107 G 11/11-06 84 48 24 11 82 W 7 7 3 1 W 26 4783 W 21 85861 G 11/11-07 84 48 24 11 81 W 8 14 3 1 W 23 5017 W 21 90615 G 11/11-08 84 48 24 11 80 W 9 15 3 1 W 21 5250 W 21 95369 G 11/11-09 84 48 24 14 69 W 10 17 3 1 W 22 8039 W 22152444 E 11/11-10 84 48 24 18 57 W 12 18 3 1 W 24 10829 W 22209518 E 11/11-11 80 37 15 21 49 W 13 21 3 1 W 26 13618 W 23266593 E 11/11-12 80 37 15 21 48 W 14 22 3 1 W 29 13144 W 23268051 E 11/11-13 80 37 15 20 49 W 14 23 3 1 W 30 12670 W 24269509 E 11/11-14 80 37 15 17 55 W 15 24 3 1 W 32 12196 W 25270967 E 11/11-15 80 37 15 15 58 W 15 24 3 1 W 36 10534 W 28244540 E 11/11-16 80 37 15 13 62 W 16 25 3 1 W 38 8873 W 29218113 E 11/11-17 62 17 3 11 66 W 16 25 3 1 W 39 7211 W 31191685 E 11/11-18 62 17 3 9 71 W 16 25 3 1 WNW 37 5953 W 31160881 E 11/11-19 62 17 3 7 76 W 16 25 2 1 NNW 33 4694 W 32130076 V 11/11-20 62 17 3 6 78 W 16 25 2 1 N 31 3436 WNW 33 99272 G 11/11-21 62 17 3 5 79 W 15 24 2 1 N 33 2933 W 35 85985 G 11/11-22 62 17 3 4 81 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 36 2431 W 35 72698 G 11/11-23 34 1 0 4 79 W 15 24 2 1 NW 39 1929 W 36 59411 F 11/12-00 34 1 0 4 77 W 15 24 2 1 NW 41 1888 W 36 57935 F 11/12-01 34 1 0 4 74 W 16 25 2 1 NNW 43 1847 W 36 56458 F 11/12-02 34 1 0 4 71 W 16 26 2 1 NNW 45 1805 W 35 54982 F 11/12-03 34 1 0 4 70 W 17 28 2 1 NNW 48 1581 W 33 46984 F 11/12-04 34 1 0 4 69 W 17 28 3 1 NNW 52 1356 W 32 38986 P 11/12-05 29 0 0 4 69 W 17 28 4 1 NNW 56 1131 W 31 30989 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...DANKERS REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121108.FERNL.01/BOU