FNUS75 KRIW 081106
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MST THU NOV 8 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON NOVEMBER 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER IDAHO WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN DRAMATICALLY COLDER AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES IN. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-47.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000L...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (60000-80000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
                    IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-28.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-88 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 11 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 30 MPH.
LAL.................1
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-800 FEET AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10000-16000 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-33.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 25-30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20-25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200L THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FEET AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15-20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (40000-70000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...COLDER. SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 12. WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND
4. HIGHS AROUND 19. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.VETERANS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS AROUND 15. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121108.FALLS.01/RIW