FNUS75 KRIW 091134
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR FALLS CREEK...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
434 AM MST FRI NOV 9 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON NOVEMBER 09.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD STORM SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING SATURDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY ENDING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....32-35...TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING
                    THE DAY.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-67 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
                    25 MPH UNTIL MID AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHWEST OR
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 25 TO 30 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 1500 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 18 TO 24 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    AND BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 1400L.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD IN THE MORNING THEN POOR. (70000 DECREASING TO
                    20000 KNOT-FT IN THE AFTERNOON).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....10-13.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-89 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN MORE EXPOSED AREAS OTHERWISE BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.60 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST IN THE EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15000-24000 KNOT-FT).

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SNOW IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-63 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-4000 FT AGL                     IN THE AFTE
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BECOMING GOOD LATE IN THE DAY. (25000-60000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 3.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.VETERANS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND
5. HIGHS AROUND 14. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20.
HIGHS AROUND 30. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC
REQUESTED BY...SEAN SNYDER
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121109.FALLS.01/RIW