FNUS71 KRNK 111920 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR PILOT MOUNTAIN FIRE...NC FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 220 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1223 EST ON NOVEMBER 11. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT AROUND 11 PM MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE/RAIN DEVELOPING EARLY MONDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT... RANGING FROM SPRINKLES TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF AN INCH. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO PICK UP AGAIN DURING LATE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE LATEST UPDATE TO THE FORECAST...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER THAN DISCUSSED...AND WILL BE 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT...MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF POOR DISPERSION FOR FROM AROUND SUNSET MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MIXING WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER GUSTS BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE MIXING HEIGHT RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............37 39 47 52 64 82 WEATHER COV......... S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE RAIN TSTM COV............ TEMP................64 60 57 56 54 53 RH..................42 51 59 65 73 81 20 FT WIND..........S 3 S 2 SE 2 S 4 S 3 S 2 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 5 5 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 2 S 2 SE 2 S 3 S 2 S 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 10 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)........2800 2400 1600 800 400 400 TRANSPORT WIND......S 8 S 10 S 10 S 3 S 5 S 5 CWR.................10 0 10 10 10 20 HAINES INDEX........5 5 4 3 3 3 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 16 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............84 78 78 78 81 76 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................50 54 60 64 66 66 RH..................90 88 79 71 66 66 20 FT WIND..........S 2 S 4 S 6 S 6 S 7 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 15 15 15 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 2 S 3 S 4 S 5 S 5 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)........300 800 1800 2800 2800 1800 TRANSPORT WIND......S 5 S 16 S 23 S 23 S 22 SW 22 CWR.................20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX........3 3 2 3 3 4 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......80 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 1 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 7 MPH LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 1 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH 3 TO 7 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............76 90 98 98 99 97 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ TEMP................61 57 54 53 51 49 RH..................78 88 95 89 87 85 20 FT WIND..........S 5 SW 5 SW 6 NW 7 N 7 N 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 20 20 EYE LEVEL WIND......S 4 S 4 W 4 NW 5 N 5 N 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....10 10 15 15 20 20 MIX HGT (FT)........800 300 300 300 500 900 TRANSPORT WIND......S 16 S 9 S 9 S 9 SW 1 N 6 CWR.................20 50 70 70 80 70 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 3 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 9 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............97 89 47 47 31 15 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................47 48 51 53 55 54 RH..................84 73 63 49 44 45 20 FT WIND..........N 7 N 6 N 6 N 6 N 5 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 10 EYE LEVEL WIND......N 5 N 5 N 5 N 4 N 4 NE 3 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (FT)........1300 1700 2100 2500 2500 2400 TRANSPORT WIND......N 8 N 9 N 9 N 7 N 6 N 5 CWR.................70 50 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........3 3 2 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...FILLO REQUESTED BY...NANCY BLACKWOOD TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121111.PILOT.01/RNK