FNUS76 KMFR 160225
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR WRIGHT CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
625 PM PST THU NOV 15 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PST ON NOVEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE BURN AREA TODAY. MOST OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH
AN INVERSION. SOME SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY STEADY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 3-5 PM PST. ONCE THE
INVERSION BREAKS UP BY LATE MORNING AND SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK
UP...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT.
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE BURN AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT BRINGING
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AND MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
THE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PARTLY BE A RESULT
OF CHANNELING THROUGH THE VALLEY SOUTH OF THE WORDEN RESERVOIR.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SPRINKLES BY MID MORNING.
                    STEADY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER 3 PM
                    PST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-47.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....CALM UNTIL MID MORNING...THEN SOUTH 3-5 WITH
                    A FEW GUST TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL
                    LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 18-25 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. 70 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 6-10 WITH A FEW GUST TO 15 MPH
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 1000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 20-28 MPH.
CWR.................90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING. STEADY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-48.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 14-20 WITH GUSTS TO 26 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26-38 MPH.
CWR.................60 PERCENT IN THE MORNING. 90 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...DAVE CANTRELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121116.WRIGH.01/MFR