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SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE BEND...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
827 AM CST FRI NOV 16 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON NOVEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT EAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH AFTER 1100 CST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WIND
GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. MIN RH FOR FRIDAY IS IN THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE AND
IS NOT EXPECTED TO VARY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 60. NOTE SMOKE
DISPERSAL TO BE POOR TO FAIR AT BEST WITH LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING
HEIGHTS REACHING 3500 FT BY 1500 CST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...LIGHT WINDS BELOW NEAR 5 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAX RH VALUES AT 88 PERCENT NEAR THE 500-700 CST TIME FRAME.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 34 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING. DEEP INVERSION
LAYER IN THE MORNING WILL MIX FAIRLY QUICKLY BY 1100 CST.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREAD WILL RESULT IN MIN RH
VALUES BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 61
DEGREES. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ABOVE 10 MPH AFTER 700 CST WITH WIND SPEEDS BY
MID MORNING BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH AROUND 30 MPH AFTER
1200 CST. OPTIMAL MIXING IS PRESENT SATURDAY AFTER POOR TO FAIR MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE SEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 4 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /8600 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.MAX...FAIR
                    /23500 KNOT-FT/.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN...POOR /3000 KNOT-FT/.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61.
RH..................MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX...EXCELLENT /66300 KNOT-FT/.

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...TIM MENARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121116.GOOSE.01/TOP