FNUS73 KTOP 171126
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOSE BEND...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
526 AM CST SAT NOV 17 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 CST ON NOVEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

FROM IGNITION TIME THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ABOVE 15 MPH SUSTAINED AFTER 1000 CST WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS PEAKING NEAR 30 MPH
AFTER 1200 CST. INVERSION LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED AT APPROXIMATELY
1000 FOOT DEPTH AT IGNITION TIME UNTIL COMPLETELY MIXING OUT BY 1200 CST.
OPTIMAL MIXING OF THE WINDS RESULTS IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40
PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COULD OFFSET
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND MIN RH VALUE BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH READINGS
NEAR 61 DEGREES.

SOUTH WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 10 MPH AFTER 1900 CST SATURDAY EVENING. CIRRUS
CLOUDS IN THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL AROUND 38 DEGREES.
NOTE SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BECOME POOR AFTER 1800 CST AS SOUTH WINDS WEAKEN AND
A DECENT INVERSION LAYER SETS UP.

ON SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DUE TO
INVERSION LAYER AND LIGHTER WINDS. INVERSION LAYER MIXES ABOVE 2000 FT AFTER
1100 CST. SOUTH WINDS PICK UP BETWEEN 10-15 MPH AFTER 0500 CST WITH WIND
GUSTS FROM 25-30 MPH AFTER 0900 CST. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE INCREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM 35-40 PERCENT AND HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AROUND 63 DEGREES. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 1800 CST.
NO WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................76 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 36.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 11 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 13 TO 18
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /5300 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION.MAX...EXCELLENT
                    /69000 KNOT-FT/.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 38.
RH..................MAX 88 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN...POOR /3500 KNOT-FT/.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 30 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 63.
RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 19
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX...EXCELLENT /76200 KNOT-FT/.

$$
FORECASTER...BOWEN
REQUESTED BY...TIM MENARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121117.GOOSE.01/TOP