FNUS75 KBOU 231226 CCA FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 507 AM MST FRI NOV 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1552 MST ON NOVEMBER 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...COLORADO WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT... MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. THEN OVERNIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM AT THE FOOT OF THE FRONT RANGE. ITS FORMATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT A STRONG MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS ON AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE. THIS GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WIND TOGETHER WITH THE FORMATION OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ON THE EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE WILDFIRE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MIN HUMIDITY........24%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2500-3500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29. MAX HUMIDITY........39-46%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 0100...THEN 12-22 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2100 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-30 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 3400-4400 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-19 MPH. .MONDAY...COLDER. PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 9-13 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 9-13 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/23-05 6 0 0 17 53 WSW 18 30 2 1 NW 38 371 W 17 5693 P 11/23-06 6 0 0 15 59 WSW 17 28 2 1 NW 39 368 W 18 5861 P 11/23-07 6 0 0 16 57 W 17 28 2 1 NNW 39 365 W 20 6028 P 11/23-08 4 0 0 18 54 W 17 28 2 1 NNW 40 363 W 20 6196 P 11/23-09 4 0 0 24 44 W 13 13 2 1 NNW 38 1381 W 22 31160 P 11/23-10 4 0 0 30 36 W 14 23 3 1 NNW 36 2399 W 25 56124 F 11/23-11 7 0 0 36 29 WSW 16 26 3 1 NNW 33 3418 WNW 28 81088 G 11/23-12 7 0 0 40 25 WSW 16 25 3 1 NNW 32 3598 WNW 28 85184 G 11/23-13 7 0 0 41 24 WSW 16 26 2 1 NW 31 3779 WNW 28 89281 G 11/23-14 5 0 0 40 25 WSW 16 26 2 1 NW 32 3959 WNW 28 93378 G 11/23-15 5 0 0 38 27 WSW 15 24 2 1 NW 33 3093 W 26 71859 G 11/23-16 5 0 0 34 33 WSW 14 23 2 1 NW 36 2227 W 25 50339 F 11/23-17 12 0 0 31 37 WSW 16 25 3 1 NW 37 1360 W 24 28820 P 11/23-18 12 0 0 28 43 WSW 16 25 4 1 NW 37 1052 W 24 22310 P 11/23-19 12 0 0 27 46 WSW 17 26 4 1 NW 36 744 W 24 15800 P 11/23-20 11 0 0 26 48 WSW 20 31 5 1 NW 36 436 W 24 9289 P 11/23-21 11 0 0 26 49 WSW 20 32 5 1 NW 37 429 W 26 9790 P 11/23-22 11 0 0 26 49 WSW 23 36 5 1 NW 38 421 W 28 10292 P 11/23-23 17 0 0 26 48 WSW 21 33 5 1 NW 39 414 W 30 10793 P 11/24-00 17 0 0 26 46 WSW 23 37 5 1 NW 40 393 W 32 10995 P 11/24-01 17 0 0 25 45 W 28 45 5 1 NW 40 371 W 35 11196 P 11/24-02 24 0 0 24 46 W 30 48 5 1 NW 41 349 W 38 11398 P 11/24-03 24 0 0 24 46 W 32 52 5 1 NW 44 353 W 39 11880 P 11/24-04 24 0 0 24 47 W 32 52 4 1 NW 45 358 W 40 12362 P 11/24-05 19 0 0 24 48 W 35 59 4 1 NW 45 362 W 40 12844 P 11/24-06 19 0 0 25 46 W 30 52 4 1 NW 45 572 W 37 16542 P 11/24-07 19 0 0 28 41 W 24 40 4 1 WNW 45 781 W 32 20239 P 11/24-08 19 0 0 31 36 W 16 28 4 1 WNW 44 991 W 28 23936 P 11/24-09 19 0 0 35 32 W 17 24 4 1 WNW 43 2039 W 33 70439 G 11/24-10 19 0 0 40 27 W 18 25 4 1 WNW 41 3088 W 39116942 V 11/24-11 22 0 0 44 23 W 20 28 4 1 WNW 40 4137 W 46163445 E 11/24-12 22 0 0 46 21 W 21 29 4 1 WNW 40 4350 W 46173513 E 11/24-13 22 0 0 47 22 W 21 29 4 1 WNW 41 4564 W 46183582 E 11/24-14 22 0 0 46 23 W 21 30 4 1 WNW 43 4777 W 47193650 E 11/24-15 22 0 0 43 25 W 21 30 4 1 WNW 43 3858 W 46154289 E 11/24-16 22 0 0 40 30 W 20 31 4 1 WNW 44 2938 W 44114928 V 11/24-17 16 0 0 36 35 W 18 31 4 1 W 46 2018 W 43 75567 G 11/24-18 16 0 0 33 39 W 18 30 4 1 W 47 1490 W 38 54010 F 11/24-19 16 0 0 31 43 W 17 29 3 1 W 49 962 W 33 32453 P 11/24-20 16 0 0 29 46 W 17 28 3 1 W 52 433 W 29 10895 P 11/24-21 16 0 0 28 46 W 17 28 3 1 W 54 450 W 29 11437 P 11/24-22 16 0 0 27 47 W 17 28 3 1 W 55 466 W 30 11978 P 11/24-23 29 0 0 27 46 W 17 28 3 1 W 56 482 W 30 12520 P 11/25-00 29 0 0 27 46 W 17 26 3 1 W 59 476 W 30 12390 P 11/25-01 29 0 0 26 47 W 17 25 3 1 W 60 470 W 30 12260 P 11/25-02 29 0 0 26 48 W 17 24 3 1 W 62 464 W 30 12130 P 11/25-03 29 0 0 25 47 W 16 23 3 1 W 62 535 W 30 13587 P 11/25-04 29 0 0 23 47 W 16 22 2 1 W 62 607 W 29 15043 P 11/25-05 26 0 0 23 48 W 15 21 2 1 W 62 679 W 28 16499 P 11/25-06 26 0 0 24 49 W 14 22 2 1 W 62 784 W 30 20499 P 11/25-07 26 0 0 25 50 W 14 23 2 1 W 61 889 W 31 24500 P 11/25-08 26 0 0 29 48 W 14 24 2 1 W 61 995 W 33 28500 P 11/25-09 26 0 0 33 42 W 15 24 2 1 W 60 2569 W 38100056 V 11/25-10 26 0 0 37 34 W 16 24 2 1 W 59 4143 W 44171612 E 11/25-11 39 1 0 41 29 W 17 24 2 1 W 60 5716 W 49243169 E 11/25-12 39 1 0 43 27 W 18 24 2 1 W 61 5884 W 48249114 E 11/25-13 39 1 0 43 26 W 20 24 2 1 W 62 6052 W 48255059 E 11/25-14 39 1 0 41 28 W 21 24 2 1 W 63 6219 W 48261004 E 11/25-15 39 1 0 38 32 W 20 24 2 1 W 63 5380 W 46219473 E 11/25-16 39 1 0 34 38 W 18 23 2 1 W 62 4540 W 45177941 E 11/25-17 55 6 1 31 43 W 17 23 2 1 W 60 3701 W 43136410 V 11/25-18 55 6 1 28 49 W 16 22 2 1 W 58 3653 W 41130923 V 11/25-19 55 6 1 26 53 W 16 21 2 1 W 55 3605 W 40125436 V 11/25-20 55 6 1 25 56 W 16 21 2 1 W 52 3558 W 39119949 V 11/25-21 55 6 1 24 58 W 16 20 2 1 W 49 3334 W 40114892 V 11/25-22 55 6 1 23 60 W 17 20 2 1 W 47 3109 W 40109834 V 11/25-23 51 6 1 23 62 W 17 20 2 1 W 47 2885 W 41104777 V 11/26-00 51 6 1 22 64 W 17 18 3 1 W 48 2686 W 41 95740 G 11/26-01 51 6 1 21 66 W 16 18 3 1 W 53 2487 W 40 86703 G 11/26-02 51 6 1 20 68 W 15 17 4 1 W 56 2288 W 39 77666 G 11/26-03 51 6 1 20 67 W 14 17 4 1 W 59 2346 W 39 78742 G 11/26-04 51 6 1 19 69 W 13 17 4 1 W 61 2403 W 38 79817 G 11/26-05 51 16 2 19 67 W 12 17 3 1 W 62 2461 W 38 80893 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121122.FERNL.01/BOU