FNUS71 KRNK 232219 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGAR CAMP CREEK...EMS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 519 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1658 EST ON NOVEMBER 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... GENERAL DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 2O TO 35 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPECIFIC DISCUSSION... A BASICALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROANOKE AREA THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL INCREASE DURING THE 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY...CONTINUING AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 50S WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT AND ONLY RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SATURDAY. CRITICAL WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE APPROACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28 TO 32. MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............88 87 82 71 58 43 29 19 15 14 15 19 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................45 42 40 38 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 29 RH..................74 74 76 78 77 76 72 70 68 66 65 66 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 30 30 35 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W WNW WNW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....15 17 20 22 25 30 28 23 22 21 20 21 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH...DECREASING TO 15 TO 25 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............23 29 40 49 52 42 28 15 11 10 10 7 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................26 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 32 31 30 RH..................69 67 62 57 53 51 49 47 46 46 47 50 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......22 23 24 25 27 28 28 25 23 21 18 16 20 FT WIND GUST.....35 35 35 35 40 40 40 38 36 30 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....25 25 25 27 28 30 30 27 25 25 22 20 CWR.................0 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BEASLEY REQUESTED BY...COIII BEVERLY ORANGE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121123.SUGAR.03/RNK