FNUS71 KRNK 240142 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGAR CAMP CREEK...ROANOKE COUNTY ECC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 842 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1658 EST ON NOVEMBER 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... GENERAL DISCUSSION... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHARPLY COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS OF 2O TO 35 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPECIFIC DISCUSSION... A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE ROANOKE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL INCREASE DURING THE 7 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONG...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AND THEN STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S SATURDAY. CRITICAL WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT MAY BE APPROACHED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 26. MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 16 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 29 TO 33 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............78 69 60 52 45 38 31 24 19 15 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................43 41 40 38 36 34 33 31 29 28 RH..................76 78 77 76 72 70 68 66 65 66 20 FT WIND DIR......W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......13 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 20 FT WIND GUST.....30 30 35 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.....W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....29 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 32 CWR.................10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 HAINES INDEX........3 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DECREASING TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 26 TO 31 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............13 13 18 25 33 41 47 50 47 41 33 23 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TSTM COV............ TEMP................26 26 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 32 31 30 RH..................69 67 62 57 53 51 49 47 46 46 47 50 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD......14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 20 FT WIND GUST.....35 35 35 30 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 25 MIX HGT (KFT).......1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.....NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....31 30 30 31 31 30 29 28 26 26 26 26 CWR.................0 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...BEASLEY REQUESTED BY...COIII BEVERLY ORANGE TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121123.SUGAR.03/RNK