FNUS75 KBOU 271300 FWSBOU WRKAGF SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 600 AM MST TUE NOV 27 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1651 MST ON NOVEMBER 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM UNTIL 5 PM MST FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... .DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING IN TO THE FIRE AREA SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH HUMIDITY ALREADY IN THE LOW TEENS. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING WHEN THE AIRMASS MIXES THEM DOWN AGAIN. HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW TEENS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES START TO COOL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES. NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE FIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%) UNTIL 0800...THEN SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35 NEAR 11000...45 NEAR 8500. MIN HUMIDITY........17% NEAR 11000...9% NEAR 8500. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 15-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2600-3600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35-45 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 45-55 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE...4 LOW IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23. MAX HUMIDITY........36%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-1700 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 1900. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47. MIN HUMIDITY........18%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 16-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 4700-5700 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-30 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 13-20 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 9-12 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-15 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/27-05 31 0 0 39 10 W 12 23 4 1 NW 52 204 W 28 4889 P 11/27-06 31 0 0 38 13 W 12 24 4 1 NW 52 313 W 29 7971 P 11/27-07 31 0 0 39 13 W 10 22 5 1 NW 51 422 W 30 11053 P 11/27-08 11 0 0 40 13 W 10 20 5 1 NW 51 531 W 31 14134 P 11/27-09 11 0 0 40 14 W 17 28 5 1 WNW 51 1498 W 39 63709 G 11/27-10 11 0 0 41 12 W 18 30 4 1 WNW 52 2466 W 47113283 V 11/27-11 7 0 0 42 11 W 20 31 4 1 WNW 52 3434 W 54162857 E 11/27-12 7 0 0 43 10 W 21 32 4 1 WNW 49 3584 W 53164858 E 11/27-13 7 0 0 45 9 W 21 33 4 1 WNW 47 3734 W 52166859 E 11/27-14 7 0 0 42 12 W 21 33 4 1 WNW 45 3884 W 49168860 E 11/27-15 7 0 0 39 17 W 21 33 4 1 WNW 47 3169 W 47133481 V 11/27-16 7 0 0 35 24 W 20 32 4 1 WNW 49 2454 W 45 98101 G 11/27-17 8 0 0 31 28 W 20 31 4 1 WNW 51 1739 W 41 62722 G 11/27-18 8 0 0 28 32 W 20 31 4 1 WNW 46 1303 W 38 45824 F 11/27-19 8 0 0 27 34 W 18 30 5 1 WNW 39 866 W 36 28926 P 11/27-20 8 0 0 26 35 W 18 30 5 1 WNW 31 430 W 32 12028 P 11/27-21 8 0 0 25 36 W 17 28 5 1 WNW 29 405 W 31 10955 P 11/27-22 8 0 0 25 35 W 16 25 5 1 WNW 28 380 W 30 9882 P 11/27-23 23 0 0 25 35 W 15 24 5 1 WNW 28 354 W 29 8809 P 11/28-00 23 0 0 24 36 W 14 22 5 1 W 25 350 W 28 8426 P 11/28-01 23 0 0 24 35 W 13 21 5 1 W 25 346 W 26 8042 P 11/28-02 23 0 0 23 36 W 13 21 5 1 W 25 342 W 25 7659 P 11/28-03 23 0 0 23 36 W 14 23 5 1 W 26 351 W 25 7874 P 11/28-04 23 0 0 23 36 W 16 26 5 1 WSW 26 360 W 25 8089 P 11/28-05 7 0 0 23 36 W 18 30 5 1 WSW 28 368 W 26 8304 P 11/28-06 7 0 0 24 35 W 18 30 5 1 WSW 28 538 W 26 12152 P 11/28-07 7 0 0 26 33 W 18 30 4 1 WSW 28 709 W 26 16000 P 11/28-08 7 0 0 29 29 W 18 30 4 1 WSW 28 879 W 26 19848 P 11/28-09 7 0 0 34 26 W 18 26 4 1 WSW 28 2281 W 29 62863 G 11/28-10 7 0 0 40 22 W 17 26 4 1 SW 28 3684 W 31105878 V 11/28-11 14 0 0 44 20 WSW 17 26 4 1 SW 28 5087 W 33148892 V 11/28-12 14 0 0 47 18 WSW 17 26 4 1 WSW 26 5579 W 35164897 E 11/28-13 14 0 0 47 18 WSW 18 28 4 1 W 24 6071 W 35180901 E 11/28-14 20 0 0 46 18 WSW 18 28 4 1 W 23 6563 W 35196905 E 11/28-15 20 0 0 43 21 WSW 18 28 4 1 W 21 5272 W 36159804 E 11/28-16 20 0 0 40 23 WSW 17 26 5 1 W 18 3980 W 36122703 V 11/28-17 25 0 0 37 27 WSW 17 26 5 1 WNW 16 2689 W 37 85602 G 11/28-18 25 0 0 34 31 W 17 26 5 1 WNW 14 2233 W 37 71196 G 11/28-19 25 0 0 32 35 W 18 26 4 1 WNW 12 1777 W 37 56790 F 11/28-20 25 0 0 31 37 W 18 28 4 1 WNW 10 1321 W 37 42385 F 11/28-21 25 0 0 30 40 W 18 29 4 1 WNW 10 1216 W 37 39013 P 11/28-22 25 0 0 30 42 W 20 29 4 1 W 12 1111 W 37 35642 P 11/28-23 37 0 0 30 43 W 20 30 4 1 W 14 1007 W 37 32270 P 11/29-00 37 0 0 30 43 W 20 30 4 1 W 16 960 W 38 31471 P 11/29-01 37 0 0 29 46 W 21 31 3 1 W 18 913 W 39 30673 P 11/29-02 37 0 0 29 46 W 21 31 3 1 W 22 866 W 40 29874 P 11/29-03 37 0 0 29 47 W 22 32 3 1 W 26 1057 W 41 37926 P 11/29-04 37 0 0 28 50 W 22 32 3 1 W 30 1249 W 43 45979 F 11/29-05 48 0 0 28 51 W 22 33 3 1 WNW 33 1440 W 44 54032 F 11/29-06 48 0 0 28 52 W 21 31 3 1 WNW 36 1763 W 44 67917 G 11/29-07 48 0 0 30 49 W 20 30 2 1 NW 37 2085 W 45 81802 G 11/29-08 48 0 0 32 47 W 18 28 2 1 NW 37 2407 W 46 95687 G 11/29-09 48 0 0 35 42 W 17 26 2 1 NW 38 3163 W 43111989 V 11/29-10 48 0 0 39 37 W 16 25 3 1 WNW 38 3919 W 39128290 V 11/29-11 31 0 0 43 32 W 16 24 3 1 WNW 37 4674 W 36144592 V 11/29-12 31 0 0 45 30 W 16 24 3 1 WNW 33 4765 W 33138390 V 11/29-13 31 0 0 45 29 W 16 24 3 1 WNW 30 4855 W 31132189 V 11/29-14 31 0 0 44 31 W 16 24 3 1 WNW 25 4945 W 29125987 V 11/29-15 31 0 0 41 35 W 15 23 4 1 W 24 4237 W 29105745 V 11/29-16 31 0 0 38 40 W 15 22 4 1 W 22 3528 W 28 85502 G 11/29-17 33 0 0 35 45 W 14 21 5 1 W 22 2819 W 26 65259 G 11/29-18 33 0 0 33 49 W 13 20 5 1 W 22 2589 W 25 57369 F 11/29-19 33 0 0 31 53 W 13 18 5 1 W 22 2360 W 24 49480 F 11/29-20 33 0 0 31 53 W 12 17 5 1 W 22 2130 W 23 41590 F 11/29-21 33 0 0 30 56 W 10 16 4 1 W 23 2014 W 22 38817 P 11/29-22 33 0 0 30 56 W 10 16 4 1 W 23 1899 W 22 36045 P 11/29-23 17 2 0 29 58 WSW 10 16 3 1 W 23 1783 W 22 33273 P 11/30-00 17 2 0 29 58 WSW 10 16 3 1 W 22 1806 W 23 36343 P 11/30-01 17 2 0 28 60 WSW 12 16 3 1 W 20 1828 W 25 39412 P 11/30-02 17 2 0 28 60 WSW 12 17 3 1 WSW 18 1850 W 26 42482 F 11/30-03 17 2 0 28 60 WSW 12 18 3 1 W 20 1756 W 26 40736 F 11/30-04 17 2 0 28 60 WSW 13 18 3 1 W 22 1663 W 26 38989 P 11/30-05 26 3 0 28 60 WSW 13 20 3 1 W 24 1570 W 28 37243 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121126.FERNL.01/BOU