FNUS71 KRNK 261138 FWSRNK SPOT FORECAST FOR WILLETT LANE FIRE...EMS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 638 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0549 EST ON NOVEMBER 26. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY... ...WIND GUSTS OF 20 MPH LIKELY NEAR RIDGE TOP... HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY. THIS AIRMASS IS VERY DRY...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PART OF TODAY. HUMIDITY MINIMUMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 25 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... RIDGE TOP GUSTS OF 20 MPH ARE STILL LIKELY. THESE MODEST WIND GUSTS IN COMBINATION WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFY ANOTHER DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. AFTER TODAY...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HEAD NORTHEAST...AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY...COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIR DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20 PERCENT OR LESS CLOUD COVER). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS OF 20 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE 3 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS OF 12 MPH. REMARKS...(USING BEHAVE PLUS) FOR FUEL MODEL 9 LEAF LITTER... CALCULATED VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEAF LITTER... FINE DEAD FUEL MOISTURE 6 PERCENT. FLAME LENGTHS 2-4 FEET RATE OF SPREAD 5 TO 15 CHAINS PER HOUR PROBABILITY OF IGNITION 51% IF NEW FIREBRAND SPOTS OVER EXISTING TRACTOR LINE. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............0 7 17 25 31 36 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TSTM COV............ TEMP................33 37 44 49 53 52 RH..................53 49 40 32 27 30 20 FT WIND..........W 8 W 8 W 6 W 6 W 6 W 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 20 20 15 10 CWR.................0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR (0.01 IN).......60 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 10 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH AT RIDGE TOP... OTHERWISE DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............46 58 70 84 93 96 WEATHER COV......... S CHC CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN TSTM COV............ TEMP................48 45 42 41 39 38 RH..................43 53 60 64 68 72 20 FT WIND..........SW 4 S 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 W 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 15 15 CWR.................0 0 10 20 30 50 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). LIGHT RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41. MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR (0.01 IN).......70 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....VARIABLE 2 TO 5 MPH. REMARKS...TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............99 100 100 97 95 92 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TSTM COV............ TEMP................36 37 39 40 41 40 RH..................82 82 81 82 82 84 20 FT WIND..........W 4 W 2 NW 2 NW 4 N 5 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 CWR.................70 70 60 50 40 30 $$ FORECASTER...MANUEL REQUESTED BY...BATTALION CHIEF TOM BIER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121126.WILLE.02/RNK