FNUS75 KBOU 281220 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 520 AM MST WED NOV 28 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1624 MST ON NOVEMBER 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT...THOUGH STILL LOOK FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH. HIGHER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WAVE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES FROM BOTTOMING OUT REALLY LOW LIKE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT HUMIDITIES TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE PLAINS. BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION...THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT BEST...THERE MAY BE A PASSING FLURRY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO "SEASON ENDING" SNOW EVENT ANY TIME SOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT LOOK FOR GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 0800...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37 NEAR 11500FT...NEAR 52 NEAR 8500FT. MIN HUMIDITY........22% NEAR 11500FT...16% NEAR 8500FT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 3800-4800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-35 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32 NEAR 11500FT...AROUND 40 NEAR 8500FT. MAX HUMIDITY........40-51%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 16-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0600. 4000-5000 FT AGL AFTER 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-20 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/28-04 23 0 0 40 15 W 14 26 5 1 W 33 384 W 22 7274 P 11/28-05 19 0 0 41 15 W 13 23 5 1 W 32 370 W 23 7519 P 11/28-06 19 0 0 39 19 W 12 22 5 1 W 30 523 W 24 11081 P 11/28-07 19 0 0 36 22 W 9 20 5 1 WSW 26 676 W 24 14644 P 11/28-08 40 0 0 30 28 W 8 17 5 1 WSW 24 829 W 25 18206 P 11/28-09 40 0 0 34 26 W 10 20 5 1 WSW 26 1851 W 30 55009 F 11/28-10 40 0 0 39 23 W 10 22 5 1 SW 30 2874 W 33 91811 G 11/28-11 55 0 0 43 20 W 10 22 5 1 SW 33 3896 W 38128614 V 11/28-12 55 0 0 46 17 W 11 21 5 1 SW 35 4407 W 38147763 V 11/28-13 55 0 0 46 16 W 13 22 4 1 WSW 35 4918 W 39166912 E 11/28-14 49 0 0 45 18 W 13 22 4 1 WSW 33 5429 W 39186061 E 11/28-15 49 0 0 42 21 W 13 24 4 1 W 30 4527 W 38152775 E 11/28-16 49 0 0 38 25 W 14 24 4 1 W 24 3625 W 38119490 V 11/28-17 41 0 0 35 29 W 14 24 4 1 WNW 20 2723 W 37 86204 G 11/28-18 41 0 0 32 34 W 16 25 4 1 W 15 2051 W 35 63738 G 11/28-19 41 0 0 31 36 W 16 26 5 1 W 10 1378 W 32 41273 F 11/28-20 41 0 0 30 39 W 17 28 5 1 W 8 706 W 31 18807 P 11/28-21 41 0 0 30 40 W 17 28 5 1 W 7 630 W 31 16965 P 11/28-22 41 0 0 29 43 W 17 28 5 1 W 9 555 W 31 15123 P 11/28-23 51 0 0 29 44 W 17 28 5 1 WSW 10 480 W 32 13281 P 11/29-00 51 0 0 29 45 W 17 28 5 1 WSW 13 513 W 32 14469 P 11/29-01 51 0 0 29 46 W 17 28 4 1 WSW 14 546 W 33 15658 P 11/29-02 51 0 0 29 46 W 17 28 4 1 WSW 16 579 W 33 16847 P 11/29-03 51 0 0 29 47 W 18 29 4 1 WSW 17 536 W 33 15694 P 11/29-04 51 0 0 28 50 W 18 30 3 1 WSW 20 493 W 33 14541 P 11/29-05 52 0 0 28 51 W 20 30 3 1 W 22 450 W 35 13388 P 11/29-06 52 0 0 28 50 W 20 29 3 1 W 26 1152 W 36 37569 P 11/29-07 52 0 0 30 46 W 18 29 2 1 W 31 1854 W 37 61749 G 11/29-08 52 0 0 32 43 W 18 28 2 1 W 35 2556 W 39 85929 G 11/29-09 52 0 0 36 38 W 18 26 2 1 W 37 3616 W 39124254 V 11/29-10 52 0 0 40 34 WSW 17 26 2 1 WNW 38 4676 W 40162580 E 11/29-11 37 0 0 44 31 WSW 17 26 2 1 NW 38 5736 W 40200905 E 11/29-12 37 0 0 46 28 WSW 18 26 2 1 WNW 36 5357 W 40185358 E 11/29-13 37 0 0 46 28 WSW 18 28 3 1 WNW 33 4979 W 39169811 E 11/29-14 38 0 0 45 28 WSW 20 30 3 1 WNW 31 4600 W 39154264 E 11/29-15 38 0 0 43 30 WSW 20 30 4 1 WNW 30 4080 W 37133627 V 11/29-16 38 0 0 40 34 W 20 30 5 1 W 29 3560 W 36112991 V 11/29-17 46 0 0 37 38 W 20 30 5 1 W 28 3040 W 35 92354 G 11/29-18 46 0 0 35 42 W 20 29 5 1 W 26 2761 W 33 81577 G 11/29-19 46 0 0 33 46 WSW 20 29 4 1 W 26 2482 W 32 70801 G 11/29-20 46 0 0 32 49 WSW 18 28 4 1 W 26 2203 W 31 60024 G 11/29-21 46 0 0 31 52 WSW 17 25 4 1 W 29 2144 W 31 57661 F 11/29-22 46 0 0 31 53 W 16 24 4 1 W 31 2085 W 30 55298 F 11/29-23 40 0 0 31 53 W 15 23 4 1 W 33 2026 W 30 52935 F 11/30-00 40 0 0 30 55 W 15 23 4 1 W 35 1857 W 28 45749 F 11/30-01 40 0 0 30 54 W 16 24 4 1 W 36 1688 W 25 38563 P 11/30-02 40 0 0 29 56 W 17 26 4 1 W 36 1519 W 24 31377 P 11/30-03 40 0 0 29 55 W 17 25 3 1 W 35 1460 W 24 30593 P 11/30-04 40 0 0 28 57 W 16 25 3 1 W 35 1401 W 24 29810 P 11/30-05 33 0 0 28 58 W 16 24 2 1 W 35 1342 W 25 29027 P 11/30-06 33 0 0 28 59 W 16 24 2 1 W 38 1507 W 25 33990 P 11/30-07 33 0 0 30 56 W 15 23 2 1 W 43 1672 W 26 38953 P 11/30-08 33 0 0 32 53 W 15 23 2 1 W 45 1837 W 28 43916 F 11/30-09 33 0 0 36 46 W 14 21 2 1 W 45 2979 W 26 64452 G 11/30-10 33 0 0 40 40 WSW 13 18 2 1 W 45 4121 W 24 84987 G 11/30-11 41 0 0 44 35 WSW 12 17 2 1 W 45 5263 W 23105522 V 11/30-12 41 0 0 46 33 WSW 12 18 2 1 W 47 5071 W 24104998 V 11/30-13 41 0 0 46 33 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 51 4879 W 24104475 V 11/30-14 48 0 0 45 34 WSW 14 21 2 1 W 53 4687 W 25103951 V 11/30-15 48 0 0 43 36 WSW 14 21 2 1 W 51 3985 W 25 88359 G 11/30-16 48 0 0 40 41 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 48 3283 W 25 72768 G 11/30-17 60 7 1 38 44 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 45 2581 W 25 57176 F 11/30-18 60 7 1 36 48 WSW 13 18 2 1 W 43 2545 W 28 61643 G 11/30-19 60 7 1 34 52 WSW 13 18 2 1 WSW 41 2509 W 30 66109 G 11/30-20 60 7 1 34 52 WSW 13 20 2 1 WSW 41 2473 W 33 70576 G 11/30-21 60 7 1 33 55 WSW 14 21 2 1 WSW 47 2461 W 37 77493 G 11/30-22 60 7 1 33 56 WSW 15 22 2 1 WSW 54 2449 W 40 84411 G 11/30-23 63 13 3 33 56 WSW 16 24 2 1 WSW 62 2437 WSW 43 91328 G 12/01-00 63 13 3 33 57 W 17 25 2 1 WSW 71 2595 WSW 44100145 V 12/01-01 63 13 3 32 60 W 18 26 2 1 WSW 79 2754 WSW 45108962 V 12/01-02 63 13 3 32 60 W 18 28 2 1 WSW 84 2913 WSW 46117779 V 12/01-03 63 13 3 32 61 W 20 29 2 1 WSW 82 2908 W 52131473 V 12/01-04 63 13 3 31 63 W 20 29 2 1 W 76 2904 W 58145167 V 12/01-05 40 2 0 31 63 W 20 30 2 1 W 68 2899 W 63158861 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121127.FERNL.01/BOU