FNUS75 KBOU 301253 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 550 AM MST FRI NOV 30 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1730 MST ON NOVEMBER 29. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW HUMIDITIES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE WINDS ARE REALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER EXPOSED RIDGES...ALTHOUGH ANY LOCATION IN THE BURN COULD SEE GUSTS OF AT LEAST 50 MPH. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN A FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE...WITH HIGHER FIRE DANGER. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF A PASSING SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVING BY THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 AT 8500 FEET...NEAR 38 AT 11000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........27-30% AT 8500 FEET...35-40% AT 11000 FEET. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN INCREASING TO 18-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ON HIGHER EXPOSED RIDGES. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...INCREASING TO 3500-5300 FT AGL AFTER 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 30-50 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........WINDY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32 AT 8500 FEET...NEAR 24 AT 11000 FEET. MAX HUMIDITY........69% AT 8500 FEET...NEAR 80% AT 11000 FEET. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 23-27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. GUSTS TO 65 MPH ON HIGHER EXPOSED RIDGES. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-50 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 55-60 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46 AT 8500 FEET...NEAR 36 AT 11000 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........36-40% AT 8500 FEET...42-48% AT 11000 FEET. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 16-28 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-55 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 35-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 11-15 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 12-20 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/30-05 44 0 0 25 71 WSW 12 18 2 1 W 44 160 WSW 16 2176 P 11/30-06 44 0 0 27 65 W 10 16 2 1 W 44 600 W 16 8699 P 11/30-07 44 0 0 29 59 W 10 16 2 1 W 45 1040 W 16 15223 P 11/30-08 42 0 0 32 52 W 12 18 2 1 W 45 1480 W 17 21746 P 11/30-09 42 0 0 37 43 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 45 2672 W 22 59801 F 11/30-10 42 0 0 42 35 WSW 15 24 2 1 W 46 3865 W 26 97855 G 11/30-11 45 0 0 46 31 WSW 17 28 2 1 W 47 5057 W 31135910 V 11/30-12 45 0 0 48 30 WSW 20 31 2 1 W 49 5238 W 37168327 E 11/30-13 45 0 0 49 30 WSW 21 35 2 1 W 53 5419 W 43200743 E 11/30-14 51 0 0 48 31 WSW 23 37 2 1 W 55 5600 W 48233159 E 11/30-15 51 0 0 45 35 WSW 24 39 2 1 W 55 4855 W 47199462 E 11/30-16 51 0 0 42 38 WSW 25 41 2 1 W 54 4110 W 46165764 E 11/30-17 63 1 0 39 42 WSW 26 43 2 1 W 54 3365 W 45132067 V 11/30-18 63 1 0 38 46 WSW 26 43 2 1 W 54 3075 W 44118417 V 11/30-19 63 1 0 37 50 WSW 26 43 2 1 W 56 2786 W 43104767 V 11/30-20 69 1 0 36 54 WSW 26 43 2 1 W 59 2496 W 41 91116 G 11/30-21 69 1 0 36 56 WSW 26 41 2 1 W 62 2673 W 46107870 V 11/30-22 69 1 0 35 59 WSW 25 40 2 1 WSW 66 2850 W 49124624 V 11/30-23 83 26 6 35 59 WSW 25 40 2 1 WSW 68 3027 W 54141378 V 12/01-00 83 26 6 34 59 W 25 41 2 1 WSW 68 3042 W 56148801 V 12/01-01 83 26 6 34 57 W 26 43 2 1 WSW 68 3056 W 59156223 E 12/01-02 83 26 6 33 58 W 28 44 2 1 WSW 68 3071 W 61163646 E 12/01-03 83 26 6 33 61 W 29 46 2 1 W 68 3020 W 60156136 E 12/01-04 83 26 6 32 66 W 30 50 2 1 W 68 2969 W 58148625 V 12/01-05 53 10 2 32 69 W 30 50 2 1 W 66 2918 W 55141114 V 12/01-06 53 10 2 32 69 W 29 49 2 1 W 59 2859 W 55136461 V 12/01-07 53 10 2 33 65 W 28 47 2 1 WNW 48 2799 W 54131808 V 12/01-08 53 10 2 35 59 W 26 43 2 1 WNW 37 2740 W 53127155 V 12/01-09 53 10 2 37 55 W 25 41 2 1 W 33 3108 W 51134808 V 12/01-10 53 10 2 40 50 W 25 40 3 1 W 33 3476 W 47142461 V 12/01-11 38 7 1 42 47 W 24 39 3 1 W 36 3844 W 45150115 E 12/01-12 38 7 1 44 43 W 24 38 3 1 W 36 4076 W 43147918 V 12/01-13 38 7 1 44 42 W 23 37 2 1 W 37 4308 W 39145722 V 12/01-14 38 7 1 43 43 W 22 35 2 1 W 39 4540 W 37143525 V 12/01-15 38 7 1 41 45 WSW 20 31 2 1 W 46 4287 W 35130726 V 12/01-16 38 7 1 38 48 WSW 16 25 2 1 W 53 4033 W 33117927 V 12/01-17 35 1 0 36 50 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 58 3779 W 32105128 V 12/01-18 35 1 0 34 53 WSW 14 21 2 1 W 58 3230 W 32 90332 G 12/01-19 35 1 0 33 54 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 55 2681 W 32 75536 G 12/01-20 35 1 0 31 58 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 53 2132 W 32 60741 G 12/01-21 35 1 0 30 60 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 51 1838 W 30 49487 F 12/01-22 35 1 0 29 61 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 48 1543 W 28 38233 P 12/01-23 29 0 0 28 63 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 47 1249 W 25 26979 P 12/02-00 29 0 0 28 63 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 46 1227 W 23 25058 P 12/02-01 29 0 0 29 60 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 45 1204 W 22 23137 P 12/02-02 29 0 0 28 63 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 44 1182 W 21 21217 P 12/02-03 29 0 0 28 62 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 44 1146 W 21 20250 P 12/02-04 29 0 0 27 63 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 45 1110 WSW 20 19284 P 12/02-05 31 0 0 27 63 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 45 1074 WSW 20 18318 P 12/02-06 31 0 0 28 61 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 43 1452 WSW 22 29453 P 12/02-07 31 0 0 29 60 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 40 1829 WSW 24 40589 F 12/02-08 31 0 0 32 53 WSW 13 21 2 1 W 38 2207 WSW 26 51725 F 12/02-09 31 0 0 36 44 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 37 3151 WSW 29 82579 G 12/02-10 31 0 0 41 34 WSW 13 20 2 1 W 36 4096 WSW 31113434 V 12/02-11 43 0 0 45 28 SW 13 21 2 1 W 36 5041 WSW 33144288 V 12/02-12 43 0 0 47 26 WSW 14 21 2 1 W 36 5142 WSW 33151067 E 12/02-13 43 0 0 48 26 WSW 14 23 2 1 W 36 5244 W 35157845 E 12/02-14 43 0 0 47 27 WSW 15 24 2 1 W 33 5345 W 36164624 E 12/02-15 43 0 0 45 30 WSW 16 25 2 1 W 28 4553 W 39150814 E 12/02-16 43 0 0 42 34 WSW 16 26 2 1 W 22 3761 W 44137004 V 12/02-17 68 17 3 39 39 WSW 17 28 2 1 WNW 17 2968 W 48123194 V 12/02-18 68 17 3 36 44 WSW 17 29 2 1 W 16 2443 W 45 97580 G 12/02-19 68 17 3 35 46 WSW 18 29 2 1 W 18 1917 W 41 71966 G 12/02-20 68 17 3 34 47 WSW 18 30 2 1 W 22 1391 W 38 46352 F 12/02-21 68 17 3 33 49 WSW 18 30 2 1 W 26 1304 W 41 46079 F 12/02-22 68 17 3 32 51 WSW 18 30 2 1 W 31 1218 W 44 45806 F 12/02-23 67 19 4 31 53 WSW 18 30 2 1 W 38 1131 W 46 45533 F 12/03-00 67 19 4 31 55 WSW 18 30 2 1 W 45 1256 W 46 49529 F 12/03-01 67 19 4 31 58 W 20 31 2 1 W 52 1381 W 45 53526 F 12/03-02 67 19 4 31 62 W 21 32 2 1 W 56 1506 W 44 57522 F 12/03-03 67 19 4 31 65 W 21 33 2 1 W 58 1603 W 41 58103 F 12/03-04 67 19 4 30 70 W 22 35 2 1 W 56 1700 W 40 58684 F 12/03-05 46 12 2 29 75 W 22 35 2 1 W 53 1796 W 38 59265 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...STEVE STROUD PLANS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121129.FERNL.01/BOU