FNUS75 KBOU 012143 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...ESTES PARK POLICE DEPT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 230 PM MST SAT DEC 1 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1319 MST ON DECEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1200 TO 2400 ON SUNDAY... .DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN/HIGHER PARTS OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWER. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER/WESTERN AREAS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ON SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS. THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THAT OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH BUT FAIRLY HIGH HUMIDITIES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD IN THE EVENING WITH BOTH VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES... BUT THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE RISING DURING THE EVENING. IF IT DOES RAIN OR SNOW...IT WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT AND OF LIMITED DURATION. FOR MONDAY IT WILL BE COLDER AND STILL WINDY...THOUGH STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DRYING...BUT PROBABLY FAIRLY MODERATE CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-34. MAX HUMIDITY........45-55%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-18 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY OVER THE RIDGES. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....44-50. MIN HUMIDITY........12-20%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE RIDGES UNTIL 1200...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN ALL AREAS BY 1600. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500. GOOD AFTER 1600. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 2300... THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-33. MAX HUMIDITY........65-80%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 20-35 MPH. GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 60 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...WINDY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 20-35 MPH. GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN THE MORNING. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/01-14 70 7 1 37 38 WSW 18 30 5 1 W 51 3632 W 44138981 V 12/01-15 70 7 1 38 36 WSW 18 30 5 1 W 53 3516 W 43131525 V 12/01-16 70 7 1 36 39 WSW 17 28 4 1 W 53 3400 W 41124070 V 12/01-17 73 0 0 34 41 WSW 15 24 4 1 W 53 3284 W 41116614 V 12/01-18 73 0 0 33 44 WSW 15 23 4 1 W 51 3250 W 40114307 V 12/01-19 73 0 0 32 47 WSW 15 25 4 1 W 47 3216 W 40111999 V 12/01-20 65 0 0 32 47 WSW 16 25 4 1 W 46 3182 W 39109691 V 12/01-21 65 0 0 31 47 WSW 16 25 4 1 W 49 3193 W 39109538 V 12/01-22 65 0 0 31 44 WSW 15 23 3 1 W 55 3205 W 39109384 V 12/01-23 66 0 0 31 41 W 14 22 3 1 W 59 3216 W 39109230 V 12/02-00 66 0 0 31 39 W 13 21 3 1 W 58 3249 W 39109807 V 12/02-01 66 0 0 31 38 W 13 21 2 1 W 53 3283 W 39110383 V 12/02-02 66 0 0 31 37 W 13 21 2 1 W 48 3317 W 38110959 V 12/02-03 66 0 0 30 39 WSW 14 22 2 1 W 44 3151 W 38104864 V 12/02-04 66 0 0 30 39 WSW 15 24 3 1 W 38 2985 WSW 38 98768 G 12/02-05 57 2 0 29 41 WSW 16 25 3 1 W 32 2820 WSW 38 92673 G 12/02-06 57 2 0 30 38 WSW 17 26 3 1 W 25 3009 WSW 37 96801 G 12/02-07 57 2 0 31 36 WSW 17 28 3 1 W 18 3197 WSW 37100930 V 12/02-08 57 2 0 34 32 WSW 17 28 3 1 W 12 3386 W 36105059 V 12/02-09 57 2 0 37 28 WSW 17 28 3 1 W 13 3884 W 35113577 V 12/02-10 57 2 0 39 26 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 16 4383 W 32122096 V 12/02-11 54 2 0 41 24 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 21 4881 W 31130614 V 12/02-12 54 2 0 43 22 WSW 18 30 3 1 WSW 24 4942 W 32138336 V 12/02-13 54 2 0 43 21 WSW 21 32 3 1 WSW 28 5003 W 33146057 V 12/02-14 54 2 0 42 22 WSW 22 35 3 1 W 31 5063 W 35153779 E 12/02-15 54 2 0 39 26 WSW 22 35 3 1 WSW 33 4080 WSW 29114032 V 12/02-16 54 2 0 36 31 WSW 22 35 4 1 WSW 37 3097 WSW 24 74286 G 12/02-17 72 23 5 33 38 WSW 23 37 4 1 WSW 40 2115 WSW 18 34539 P 12/02-18 72 23 5 32 43 WSW 30 48 3 1 WSW 45 2296 WSW 23 49663 F 12/02-19 72 23 5 31 49 W 36 58 2 1 WSW 49 2478 WSW 28 64787 G 12/02-20 72 23 5 31 53 W 40 64 2 1 WSW 54 2659 WSW 32 79911 G 12/02-21 72 23 5 30 60 W 41 67 2 1 WSW 60 2841 WSW 37 95035 G 12/02-22 72 23 5 30 65 W 41 67 2 1 WSW 63 3022 WSW 40110159 V 12/02-23 72 31 10 30 69 W 40 64 2 1 WSW 66 3204 W 45125283 V 12/03-00 72 31 10 29 71 W 39 62 2 1 WSW 67 3224 W 45126259 V 12/03-01 72 31 10 29 69 W 38 61 2 1 WSW 66 3245 W 45127235 V 12/03-02 72 31 10 28 72 W 37 59 2 1 W 64 3265 W 45128211 V 12/03-03 72 31 10 28 76 W 37 60 2 1 W 62 3286 W 45129187 V 12/03-04 72 31 10 27 86 W 38 61 2 1 W 60 3306 W 45130163 V 12/03-05 71 26 6 26 92 WNW 39 62 2 1 W 59 3327 W 45131139 V 12/03-06 71 26 6 25 89 W 40 63 2 1 W 58 3912 W 43135402 V 12/03-07 71 26 6 25 79 W 40 63 2 1 W 56 4496 W 39139665 V 12/03-08 71 26 6 26 68 W 38 61 2 1 W 56 5081 W 36143928 V 12/03-09 71 26 6 28 60 W 31 51 2 1 W 55 5666 W 32148191 V 12/03-10 71 26 6 31 52 W 23 38 2 1 W 54 6250 W 30152453 E 12/03-11 49 8 2 33 47 W 17 28 2 1 W 54 6835 W 26156716 E 12/03-12 49 8 2 34 44 W 16 25 2 1 W 54 6676 W 26154156 E 12/03-13 49 8 2 34 43 W 17 28 2 1 W 53 6518 W 26151595 E 12/03-14 49 8 2 32 45 W 18 30 2 1 W 53 6359 W 26149034 V 12/03-15 49 8 2 31 45 W 18 30 2 1 W 53 6200 W 28146474 V 12/03-16 49 8 2 29 47 W 18 30 2 1 W 52 6041 W 28143913 V 12/03-17 45 0 0 27 50 W 18 30 2 1 W 51 5883 W 28141353 V 12/03-18 45 0 0 25 55 W 17 29 2 1 W 47 5528 W 26127805 V 12/03-19 45 0 0 25 56 W 17 28 2 1 W 45 5174 W 24114257 V 12/03-20 45 0 0 24 60 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 41 4820 W 23100709 V 12/03-21 45 0 0 23 64 W 15 24 2 1 WNW 39 4466 W 22 87161 G 12/03-22 45 0 0 23 65 W 15 23 2 1 WNW 37 4112 W 20 73613 G 12/03-23 30 0 0 23 65 W 14 22 2 1 NW 35 3757 W 18 60065 G 12/04-00 30 0 0 23 63 W 14 22 2 1 NW 35 3535 W 17 54608 F 12/04-01 30 0 0 23 59 W 14 22 2 1 NW 36 3313 W 16 49151 F 12/04-02 30 0 0 23 57 W 14 22 2 1 NW 37 3091 W 16 43693 F 12/04-03 30 0 0 23 56 W 14 22 2 1 NW 39 2869 W 15 38236 P 12/04-04 30 0 0 22 59 W 14 22 2 1 NW 40 2646 W 14 32779 P 12/04-05 31 0 0 22 59 W 14 22 2 1 NW 43 2424 W 13 27322 P 12/04-06 31 0 0 22 58 W 14 22 2 1 NW 44 2790 W 14 34305 P 12/04-07 31 0 0 23 55 W 14 22 2 1 NW 46 3156 W 15 41288 F 12/04-08 31 0 0 25 50 W 14 22 2 1 NW 47 3522 W 15 48272 F 12/04-09 31 0 0 29 44 W 14 22 2 1 NW 48 3888 W 16 55255 F 12/04-10 31 0 0 32 41 W 14 22 2 1 NW 49 4253 W 16 62238 G 12/04-11 47 0 0 36 37 WSW 14 22 2 1 NW 48 4619 W 17 69222 G 12/04-12 47 0 0 38 35 WSW 15 23 2 1 WNW 47 4205 W 17 62704 G 12/04-13 47 0 0 38 35 W 15 24 2 1 WNW 46 3791 W 17 56187 F 12/04-14 47 0 0 37 37 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 44 3376 W 17 49670 F 12/04-15 47 0 0 35 40 W 16 26 2 1 WNW 40 2962 W 16 43153 F 12/04-16 47 0 0 32 46 W 17 28 2 1 W 37 2548 WSW 16 36636 P 12/04-17 54 0 0 30 51 W 17 28 2 1 W 35 2133 WSW 16 30119 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL MCENDAFFEER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121201.FERNL.01/BOU