FNUS75 KBOU 021328 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 628 AM MST SUN DEC 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1733 MST ON DECEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE STATE...FILTERING THE SUN AT TIMES. LATER TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE STATE AS FLOW ALOFT ALSO INCREASES. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE REST OF THE PARK AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH RIDGES WILL BE VERY WINDY TONIGHT...AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND MORE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-56. MIN HUMIDITY........16-24%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-2700 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5200-5600 FT AGL AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-32. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20-30 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN 34-40 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 3700-4700 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-45 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 60-70 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. EXCELLENT AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-40. MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH UNTIL 0800. 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1100. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-65 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/02-06 57 2 0 31 47 WSW 17 25 1 12/02-07 57 2 0 32 46 WSW 17 25 1 12/02-08 57 2 0 33 45 WSW 17 26 4 1 W 39 2702 W 32 76400 G 12/02-09 57 2 0 36 40 WSW 17 25 1 12/02-10 57 2 0 39 35 WSW 17 25 1 12/02-11 54 2 0 41 33 WSW 17 26 4 1 WSW 41 5224 W 24 111615 V 12/02-12 54 2 0 43 31 WSW 18 28 1 12/02-13 54 2 0 43 32 WSW 21 31 1 12/02-14 54 2 0 42 35 WSW 22 33 3 1 WSW 43 5605 WSW 31 153424 E 12/02-15 54 2 0 40 37 WSW 22 32 1 12/02-16 54 2 0 38 40 WSW 22 32 1 12/02-17 72 23 5 36 44 WSW 23 35 2 1 WSW 43 2937 WSW 38 98175 G 12/02-18 72 23 5 36 45 WSW 29 43 1 12/02-19 72 23 5 36 47 W 35 53 1 12/02-20 72 23 5 36 50 W 40 61 2 1 WSW 47 4197 W 45 162199 E 12/02-21 72 23 5 35 54 W 41 63 1 12/02-22 72 23 5 35 57 W 41 62 1 12/02-23 72 31 10 34 61 W 40 61 2 1 WSW 61 4877 W 58 243974 E 12/03-00 72 31 10 34 62 W 39 59 1 12/03-01 72 31 10 33 64 W 38 56 1 12/03-02 72 31 10 33 64 W 37 55 2 1 WSW 68 3533 W 71 218885 E 12/03-03 72 31 10 32 67 W 37 56 2 1 WSW 69 3959 W 69 235541 E 12/03-04 72 31 10 32 67 W 38 56 2 1 W 70 4385 W 67 252198 E 12/03-05 68 29 8 32 66 W 38 61 2 1 WNW 68 4810 W 64 268854 E 12/03-06 68 29 8 31 67 W 37 59 2 1 W 60 4618 W 63 254354 E 12/03-07 68 29 8 31 64 W 35 56 2 1 W 52 4426 W 62 239854 E 12/03-08 68 29 8 31 61 W 32 52 2 1 W 48 4233 W 61 225354 E 12/03-09 68 29 8 32 54 W 26 44 2 1 W 55 4580 W 54 209806 E 12/03-10 68 29 8 33 48 W 22 35 2 1 W 54 4926 W 46 194257 E 12/03-11 50 23 5 34 43 W 17 28 2 1 W 53 5272 W 39 178708 E 12/03-12 50 23 5 35 40 W 17 26 2 1 W 54 5553 W 39 187386 E 12/03-13 50 23 5 35 39 W 18 29 2 1 W 53 5835 W 39 196063 E 12/03-14 50 23 5 34 40 W 20 31 4 1 W 49 6116 W 38 204740 E 12/03-15 50 23 5 32 43 W 21 32 2 1 W 53 5477 W 39 183818 E 12/03-16 50 23 5 30 47 W 21 33 2 1 W 52 4837 W 39 162897 E 12/03-17 47 0 0 28 51 W 21 33 4 1 W 40 4197 W 39 141976 V 12/03-18 47 0 0 26 53 W 20 32 2 1 W 47 3718 W 37 121340 V 12/03-19 47 0 0 24 55 W 20 31 2 1 W 45 3240 W 36 100705 V 12/03-20 47 0 0 23 54 W 18 30 3 1 WNW 38 2761 W 33 80069 G 12/03-21 47 0 0 23 52 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 39 2637 W 35 77835 G 12/03-22 47 0 0 23 49 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 37 2514 W 35 75601 G 12/03-23 30 0 0 22 50 W 18 30 3 1 WNW 38 2390 W 36 73368 G 12/04-00 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 29 2 1 NW 35 2234 W 32 63131 G 12/04-01 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 28 2 1 NW 36 2077 W 29 52894 F 12/04-02 30 0 0 21 52 W 16 25 3 1 WNW 51 1921 W 25 42657 F 12/04-03 30 0 0 21 53 W 16 25 2 1 NW 39 1946 W 24 40925 F 12/04-04 30 0 0 21 55 W 15 24 2 1 NW 40 1972 W 23 39192 P 12/04-05 31 0 0 21 57 W 15 24 2 1 NW 56 1997 W 22 37459 P 12/04-06 31 0 0 22 56 W 15 23 2 1 NW 44 2075 W 22 38569 P 12/04-07 31 0 0 23 55 W 14 22 2 1 NW 46 2154 W 21 39679 P 12/04-08 31 0 0 25 52 W 14 22 2 1 WNW 49 2232 W 21 40789 F 12/04-09 31 0 0 28 48 W 14 22 2 1 NW 48 3340 W 23 72258 G 12/04-10 31 0 0 32 42 W 14 23 2 1 NW 49 4447 W 25 103727 V 12/04-11 46 0 0 35 38 W 15 24 2 1 WNW 45 5555 W 28 135195 V 12/04-12 46 0 0 38 34 W 16 25 2 1 WNW 47 5600 W 31 149071 V 12/04-13 46 0 0 39 34 W 16 26 2 1 WNW 46 5645 W 33 162948 E 12/04-14 46 0 0 38 35 W 17 28 2 1 WNW 45 5689 W 36 176824 E 12/04-15 46 0 0 36 39 W 17 29 2 1 WNW 40 4607 W 35 141121 V 12/04-16 46 0 0 33 44 W 18 29 2 1 W 37 3525 W 33 105418 V 12/04-17 56 2 0 30 51 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 43 2443 W 33 69716 G 12/04-18 56 2 0 29 54 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 44 2352 W 35 70874 G 12/04-19 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 41 2261 W 37 72032 G 12/04-20 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 39 2170 W 39 73189 G 12/04-21 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 WNW 37 2090 W 38 68772 G 12/04-22 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 29 2 1 W 36 2011 W 37 64354 G 12/04-23 52 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 W 35 1931 W 36 59936 F 12/05-00 52 2 0 29 56 W 18 30 2 1 W 35 1978 W 37 62615 G 12/05-01 52 2 0 29 57 W 20 31 2 1 W 33 2025 W 37 65294 G 12/05-02 52 2 0 29 58 W 20 31 2 1 W 33 2072 W 38 67973 G 12/05-03 52 2 0 29 59 W 20 31 2 1 W 35 2075 W 38 68268 G 12/05-04 52 2 0 28 62 W 20 31 2 1 W 35 2078 W 38 68562 G 12/05-05 51 7 1 28 63 W 20 31 2 1 WNW 36 2081 W 38 68857 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...DANKERS REQUESTED BY...STEVE STROUD PLANS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121201.FERNL.02/BOU