FNUS75 KBOU 021600 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 900 AM MST SUN DEC 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1733 MST ON DECEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING... .DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 215 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CROSSING THE STATE TODAY FILTERING THE SUN OUT AT TIMES. LATER TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT ALSO INCREASES. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE REST OF THE PARK AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH RIDGES WILL BE VERY WINDY TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THE OVERALL RECOVERY MAY BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. COOLER CONDITIONS...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS AND MORE GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-56. MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-2700 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 5200-5600 FT AGL AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1500. HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-32. MAX HUMIDITY........67%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 21-31 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN 33-37 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 3700-4700 FT AGL AFTER 2300. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-45 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 60-70 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. EXCELLENT AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35. MIN HUMIDITY........39%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 31-34 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH UNTIL 0800. 16-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1100. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-65 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 16-18 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/02-08 57 2 0 33 45 W 17 26 2 1 2702 W 32 76400 G 12/02-09 57 2 0 36 40 W 17 25 2 1 3543 W 30 88138 G 12/02-10 57 2 0 39 35 SW 17 25 2 1 4383 W 26 99876 G 12/02-11 54 2 0 41 33 SW 17 26 2 1 5224 W 24 111615 V 12/02-12 54 2 0 43 31 SW 18 28 2 1 5351 W 26 125551 V 12/02-13 54 2 0 43 32 SW 21 31 2 1 5478 W 29 139488 V 12/02-14 54 2 0 42 35 SW 22 33 2 1 5605 W 31 153424 E 12/02-15 54 2 0 40 37 SW 22 32 2 1 4716 W 33 135008 V 12/02-16 54 2 0 38 40 W 22 32 2 1 3826 W 36 116591 V 12/02-17 72 23 5 36 44 W 23 35 2 1 2937 W 38 98175 G 12/02-18 72 23 5 36 45 W 29 43 2 1 3357 W 40 119516 V 12/02-19 72 23 5 36 47 W 35 53 2 1 3777 W 43 140857 V 12/02-20 72 23 5 36 50 W 40 61 2 1 4197 W 45 162199 E 12/02-21 72 23 5 35 54 W 41 63 2 1 4424 W 49 189457 E 12/02-22 72 23 5 35 57 W 41 62 2 1 4650 W 53 216715 E 12/02-23 72 31 10 34 61 W 40 61 2 1 4877 W 58 243974 E 12/03-00 72 31 10 34 62 W 39 59 2 1 4429 W 62 235611 E 12/03-01 72 31 10 33 64 W 38 56 2 1 3981 W 67 227248 E 12/03-02 72 31 10 33 64 W 37 55 2 1 3533 W 71 218885 E 12/03-03 72 31 10 32 67 W 37 56 2 1 3959 W 69 235541 E 12/03-04 72 31 10 32 67 W 38 56 2 1 4385 W 67 252198 E 12/03-05 68 29 8 32 66 W 38 61 2 1 4810 W 64 268854 E 12/03-06 68 29 8 31 67 W 37 59 2 1 4618 W 63 254354 E 12/03-07 68 29 8 31 64 W 35 56 2 1 4426 W 62 239854 E 12/03-08 68 29 8 31 61 W 32 52 2 1 4233 W 61 225354 E 12/03-09 68 29 8 32 54 W 26 44 2 1 4580 W 54 209806 E 12/03-10 68 29 8 33 48 W 22 35 2 1 4926 W 46 194257 E 12/03-11 50 23 5 34 43 W 17 28 2 1 5272 W 39 178708 E 12/03-12 50 23 5 35 40 W 17 26 2 1 5553 W 39 187386 E 12/03-13 50 23 5 35 39 W 18 29 2 1 5835 W 39 196063 E 12/03-14 50 23 5 34 40 W 20 31 4 1 6116 W 38 204740 E 12/03-15 50 23 5 32 43 W 21 32 2 1 5477 W 39 183818 E 12/03-16 50 23 5 30 47 W 21 33 2 1 4837 W 39 162897 E 12/03-17 47 0 0 28 51 W 21 33 4 1 4197 W 39 141976 V 12/03-18 47 0 0 26 53 W 20 32 2 1 3718 W 37 121340 V 12/03-19 47 0 0 24 55 W 20 31 2 1 3240 W 36 100705 V 12/03-20 47 0 0 23 54 W 18 30 3 1 2761 W 33 80069 G 12/03-21 47 0 0 23 52 W 18 30 2 1 2637 W 35 77835 G 12/03-22 47 0 0 23 49 W 18 30 2 1 2514 W 35 75601 G 12/03-23 30 0 0 22 50 W 18 30 3 1 2390 W 36 73368 G 12/04-00 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 29 2 1 2234 W 32 63131 G 12/04-01 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 28 2 1 2077 W 29 52894 F 12/04-02 30 0 0 21 52 W 16 25 3 1 1921 W 25 42657 F 12/04-03 30 0 0 21 53 W 16 25 2 1 1946 W 24 40925 F 12/04-04 30 0 0 21 55 W 15 24 2 1 1972 W 23 39192 P 12/04-05 31 0 0 21 57 W 15 24 2 1 1997 W 22 37459 P 12/04-06 31 0 0 22 56 W 15 23 2 1 2075 W 22 38569 P 12/04-07 31 0 0 23 55 W 14 22 2 1 2154 W 21 39679 P 12/04-08 31 0 0 25 52 W 14 22 2 1 2232 W 21 40789 F 12/04-09 31 0 0 28 48 W 14 22 2 1 3340 W 23 72258 G 12/04-10 31 0 0 32 42 W 14 23 2 1 4447 W 25 103727 V 12/04-11 46 0 0 35 38 W 15 24 2 1 5555 W 28 135195 V 12/04-12 46 0 0 38 34 W 16 25 2 1 5600 W 31 149071 V 12/04-13 46 0 0 39 34 W 16 26 2 1 5645 W 33 162948 E 12/04-14 46 0 0 38 35 W 17 28 2 1 5689 W 36 176824 E 12/04-15 46 0 0 36 39 W 17 29 2 1 4607 W 35 141121 V 12/04-16 46 0 0 33 44 W 18 29 2 1 3525 W 33 105418 V 12/04-17 56 2 0 30 51 W 18 30 2 1 2443 W 33 69716 G 12/04-18 56 2 0 29 54 W 18 30 2 1 2352 W 35 70874 G 12/04-19 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 2261 W 37 72032 G 12/04-20 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 2170 W 39 73189 G 12/04-21 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 2090 W 38 68772 G 12/04-22 56 2 0 29 55 W 18 29 2 1 2011 W 37 64354 G 12/04-23 52 2 0 29 55 W 18 30 2 1 1931 W 36 59936 F 12/05-00 52 2 0 29 56 W 18 30 2 1 1978 W 37 62615 G 12/05-01 52 2 0 29 57 W 20 31 2 1 2025 W 37 65294 G 12/05-02 52 2 0 29 58 W 20 31 2 1 2072 W 38 67973 G 12/05-03 52 2 0 29 59 W 20 31 2 1 2075 W 38 68268 G 12/05-04 52 2 0 28 62 W 20 31 2 1 2078 W 38 68562 G 12/05-05 51 7 1 28 63 W 20 31 2 1 2081 W 38 68857 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...STEVE STROUD PLANS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121201.FERNL.02/BOU