FNUS75 KBOU 022219 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 319 PM MST SUN DEC 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1733 MST ON DECEMBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY LIMIT THE RECOVERY IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD RECOVER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER PASSES AND COULD SPILL INTO BURN AREA. IT WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE WITH LESSER WIND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-55. MIN HUMIDITY........14-18%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 18-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-32. MAX HUMIDITY........60-65%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 25-33 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-50 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 55-75 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2400...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 15 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-37. MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 19-29 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-55 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 30-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 12-17 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 18-25 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS AROUND 30. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/02-15 54 2 0 40 37 WSW 23 37 3 1 WSW 31 2977 WSW 43 108191 V 12/02-16 54 2 0 38 38 WSW 25 40 3 1 WSW 31 2634 WSW 43 97664 G 12/02-17 74 60 38 35 42 WSW 28 44 2 1 SW 32 2291 W 44 87136 G 12/02-18 74 60 38 34 43 WSW 30 48 2 1 SW 32 2387 WSW 45 93011 G 12/02-19 74 60 38 34 43 WSW 32 52 2 1 SW 33 2483 WSW 46 98886 G 12/02-20 74 60 38 34 43 W 35 55 2 1 WSW 36 2579 WSW 47 104761 V 12/02-21 74 60 38 34 46 W 36 58 2 1 WSW 43 2675 WSW 48 113849 V 12/02-22 74 60 38 33 51 W 37 59 2 1 WSW 51 2771 WSW 51 122937 V 12/02-23 72 36 14 32 56 W 37 59 2 1 WSW 56 2866 W 53 132025 V 12/03-00 72 36 14 32 56 W 37 60 2 1 WSW 55 2816 W 60 146332 V 12/03-01 72 36 14 31 58 W 37 60 2 1 SW 53 2766 W 67 160639 E 12/03-02 72 36 14 30 61 W 37 59 2 1 SW 49 2715 W 74 174947 E 12/03-03 72 36 14 30 63 W 36 56 2 1 WSW 49 3018 W 67 171775 E 12/03-04 72 36 14 29 70 W 33 54 2 1 W 49 3321 W 60 168603 E 12/03-05 68 29 8 29 72 W 32 52 2 1 WNW 49 3624 W 53 165431 E 12/03-06 68 29 8 28 74 W 32 51 2 1 WNW 47 3949 W 49 167466 E 12/03-07 68 29 8 28 70 W 31 49 2 1 W 45 4273 W 46 169502 E 12/03-08 68 29 8 29 63 W 30 48 2 1 W 43 4597 W 43 171538 E 12/03-09 68 29 8 30 55 W 26 43 2 1 W 44 4996 W 43 181849 E 12/03-10 68 29 8 32 46 W 23 37 2 1 W 45 5395 W 41 192160 E 12/03-11 50 21 4 33 41 W 21 33 2 1 W 47 5794 W 40 202472 E 12/03-12 50 21 4 34 38 W 22 35 2 1 W 47 5902 W 38 193673 E 12/03-13 50 21 4 34 38 W 23 37 2 1 W 47 6010 W 36 184874 E 12/03-14 50 21 4 32 41 W 24 39 2 1 W 47 6118 W 33 176076 E 12/03-15 50 21 4 30 45 W 22 36 3 1 W 47 5395 W 32 153078 E 12/03-16 50 21 4 28 49 W 20 31 4 1 WNW 46 4671 W 32 130080 V 12/03-17 47 0 0 27 50 W 17 28 5 1 WNW 44 3948 W 31 107082 V 12/03-18 47 0 0 25 55 W 17 26 5 1 WNW 40 3622 W 32 101277 V 12/03-19 47 0 0 24 54 W 17 28 5 1 WNW 36 3295 W 33 95471 G 12/03-20 47 0 0 24 52 W 18 30 5 1 WNW 32 2969 W 35 89666 G 12/03-21 47 0 0 23 54 W 18 28 5 1 WNW 30 2936 W 33 86643 G 12/03-22 47 0 0 23 52 W 18 28 4 1 WNW 28 2902 W 33 83620 G 12/03-23 30 0 0 23 52 W 18 28 4 1 WNW 29 2868 W 32 80597 G 12/04-00 30 0 0 23 50 W 17 26 4 1 WNW 30 2802 W 30 73196 G 12/04-01 30 0 0 22 52 W 17 26 3 1 WNW 32 2735 W 28 65795 G 12/04-02 30 0 0 22 49 W 16 16 3 1 NW 36 2668 W 25 58394 F 12/04-03 30 0 0 21 52 W 16 16 3 1 NW 38 2482 W 24 52616 F 12/04-04 30 0 0 21 52 W 15 15 2 1 NW 40 2296 W 23 46837 F 12/04-05 33 0 0 21 52 W 15 15 2 1 WNW 44 2110 W 22 41059 F 12/04-06 33 0 0 22 49 W 15 15 2 1 WNW 47 2305 W 22 43875 F 12/04-07 33 0 0 23 47 W 14 14 3 1 WNW 49 2500 W 22 46692 F 12/04-08 33 0 0 25 44 W 14 14 3 1 WNW 51 2696 W 21 49508 F 12/04-09 33 0 0 28 38 W 14 14 3 1 WNW 48 3317 W 22 64026 G 12/04-10 33 0 0 32 34 W 14 14 3 1 WNW 44 3939 W 23 78544 G 12/04-11 53 0 0 35 30 W 15 15 3 1 WNW 41 4560 W 23 93062 G 12/04-12 53 0 0 37 28 W 15 15 3 1 WNW 41 5309 W 24 114440 V 12/04-13 53 0 0 38 26 W 16 16 2 1 WNW 41 6057 W 25 135818 V 12/04-14 53 0 0 37 27 W 16 16 2 1 WNW 41 6806 W 26 157196 E 12/04-15 53 0 0 35 30 W 16 16 2 1 WNW 39 5572 W 29 134592 V 12/04-16 53 0 0 32 36 W 16 16 2 1 WNW 36 4339 W 31 111987 V 12/04-17 68 2 0 29 42 W 17 26 2 1 WNW 32 3105 W 33 89383 G 12/04-18 68 2 0 28 46 W 20 30 2 1 NW 29 2790 W 35 82917 G 12/04-19 68 2 0 28 46 W 23 35 2 1 NW 25 2474 W 36 76451 G 12/04-20 68 2 0 28 46 W 25 38 2 1 NW 22 2159 W 37 69985 G 12/04-21 68 2 0 29 44 W 26 40 2 1 NW 20 2197 W 39 74034 G 12/04-22 68 2 0 29 46 W 28 41 3 1 WNW 18 2235 W 40 78082 G 12/04-23 66 2 0 29 46 W 28 41 3 1 W 18 2273 W 41 82130 G 12/05-00 66 2 0 29 48 W 28 41 3 1 W 17 2219 W 40 77379 G 12/05-01 66 2 0 29 48 W 28 41 3 1 W 17 2166 W 38 72628 G 12/05-02 66 2 0 29 51 W 26 40 3 1 W 18 2113 W 37 67876 G 12/05-03 66 2 0 29 53 W 25 38 3 1 W 20 2175 W 38 71075 G 12/05-04 66 2 0 29 53 W 24 37 2 1 W 22 2238 W 38 74274 G 12/05-05 60 7 1 29 55 W 24 37 2 1 W 25 2300 W 39 77474 G 12/05-06 60 7 1 29 55 W 25 38 2 1 W 29 2526 W 39 85954 G 12/05-07 60 7 1 30 55 W 26 40 2 1 W 32 2752 W 39 94435 G 12/05-08 60 7 1 31 53 W 26 40 2 1 W 36 2978 W 40 102915 V 12/05-09 60 7 1 33 49 W 25 38 2 1 W 38 3826 W 43 147583 V 12/05-10 60 7 1 36 43 W 23 35 2 1 W 40 4674 W 46 192251 E 12/05-11 66 9 2 38 40 W 22 33 2 1 W 43 5522 W 49 236918 E 12/05-12 66 9 2 39 40 W 24 37 2 1 W 43 5438 W 51 238573 E 12/05-13 66 9 2 39 44 W 26 40 2 1 W 43 5355 W 52 240228 E 12/05-14 66 9 2 38 48 W 28 41 2 1 W 43 5272 W 53 241882 E 12/05-15 66 9 2 36 54 W 24 37 2 1 W 43 4779 W 51 211672 E 12/05-16 66 9 2 34 58 W 21 31 3 1 W 44 4287 W 48 181461 E 12/05-17 76 18 4 33 63 W 18 28 3 1 W 45 3794 W 46 151251 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...STEVE STROUD PLANS TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121201.FERNL.02/BOU