FNUS75 KBOU 021900 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 1200 PM MST SUN DEC 2 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1200 MST ON DECEMBER 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY LIMIT THE RECOVERY IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD RECOVER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. LIGHT SNOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER PASSES AND COULD SPILL INTO ESTES PARK AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY. THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE WITH LESSER WIND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57. MIN HUMIDITY........13-16%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 16-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37. MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 21-31 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN 33-37 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-55 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 60-70 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800. EXCELLENT AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-40. MIN HUMIDITY........34-38%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH UNTIL 0800. 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1100. MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-65 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN AROUND 40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 18-25 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/02-11 54 2 0 41 33 SW 17 26 2 1 5224 W 24 111615 V 12/02-12 54 2 0 43 31 SW 18 28 2 1 5351 W 26 125551 V 12/02-13 54 2 0 43 32 SW 21 31 2 1 5478 W 29 139488 V 12/02-14 54 2 0 42 35 SW 22 33 2 1 5605 W 31 153424 E 12/02-15 54 2 0 40 37 SW 22 32 2 1 4716 W 33 135008 V 12/02-16 54 2 0 38 40 W 22 32 2 1 3826 W 36 116591 V 12/02-17 72 23 5 36 44 W 23 35 2 1 2937 W 38 98175 G 12/02-18 72 23 5 36 45 W 29 43 2 1 3357 W 40 119516 V 12/02-19 72 23 5 36 47 W 35 53 2 1 3777 W 43 140857 V 12/02-20 72 23 5 36 50 W 40 61 2 1 4197 W 45 162199 E 12/02-21 72 23 5 35 54 W 41 63 2 1 4424 W 49 189457 E 12/02-22 72 23 5 35 57 W 41 62 2 1 4650 W 53 216715 E 12/02-23 72 31 10 34 61 W 40 61 2 1 4877 W 58 243974 E 12/03-00 72 31 10 34 62 W 39 59 2 1 4429 W 62 235611 E 12/03-01 72 31 10 33 64 W 38 56 2 1 3981 W 67 227248 E 12/03-02 72 31 10 33 64 W 37 55 2 1 3533 W 71 218885 E 12/03-03 72 31 10 32 67 W 37 56 2 1 3959 W 69 235541 E 12/03-04 72 31 10 32 67 W 38 56 2 1 4385 W 67 252198 E 12/03-05 68 29 8 32 66 W 38 61 2 1 4810 W 64 268854 E 12/03-06 68 29 8 31 67 W 37 59 2 1 4618 W 63 254354 E 12/03-07 68 29 8 31 64 W 35 56 2 1 4426 W 62 239854 E 12/03-08 68 29 8 31 61 W 32 52 2 1 4233 W 61 225354 E 12/03-09 68 29 8 32 54 W 26 44 2 1 4580 W 54 209806 E 12/03-10 68 29 8 33 48 W 22 35 2 1 4926 W 46 194257 E 12/03-11 50 23 5 34 43 W 17 28 2 1 5272 W 39 178708 E 12/03-12 50 23 5 35 40 W 17 26 2 1 5553 W 39 187386 E 12/03-13 50 23 5 35 39 W 18 29 2 1 5835 W 39 196063 E 12/03-14 50 23 5 34 40 W 20 31 4 1 6116 W 38 204740 E 12/03-15 50 23 5 32 43 W 21 32 2 1 5477 W 39 183818 E 12/03-16 50 23 5 30 47 W 21 33 2 1 4837 W 39 162897 E 12/03-17 47 0 0 28 51 W 21 33 4 1 4197 W 39 141976 V 12/03-18 47 0 0 26 53 W 20 30 2 1 3718 W 37 121340 V 12/03-19 47 0 0 24 55 W 20 30 2 1 3240 W 36 100705 V 12/03-20 47 0 0 23 54 W 18 28 3 1 2761 W 33 80069 G 12/03-21 47 0 0 23 52 W 18 28 2 1 2637 W 35 77835 G 12/03-22 47 0 0 23 49 W 18 28 2 1 2514 W 35 75601 G 12/03-23 30 0 0 22 50 W 18 28 3 1 2390 W 36 73368 G 12/04-00 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 26 2 1 2234 W 32 63131 G 12/04-01 30 0 0 22 49 W 17 26 2 1 2077 W 29 52894 F 12/04-02 30 0 0 21 52 W 16 16 3 1 1921 W 25 42657 F 12/04-03 30 0 0 21 53 W 16 16 2 1 1946 W 24 40925 F 12/04-04 30 0 0 21 55 W 15 15 2 1 1972 W 23 39192 P 12/04-05 33 0 0 21 57 W 15 15 2 1 1997 W 22 37459 P 12/04-06 33 0 0 22 56 W 15 15 2 1 2075 W 22 38569 P 12/04-07 33 0 0 23 55 W 14 14 2 1 2154 W 21 39679 P 12/04-08 33 0 0 25 52 W 14 14 2 1 2232 W 21 40789 F 12/04-09 33 0 0 28 48 W 14 14 2 1 3340 W 23 72258 G 12/04-10 33 0 0 32 42 W 14 14 2 1 4447 W 25 103727 V 12/04-11 53 0 0 35 38 W 15 15 2 1 5555 W 28 135195 V 12/04-12 53 0 0 38 34 W 15 15 2 1 5600 W 31 149071 V 12/04-13 53 0 0 39 34 W 16 16 2 1 5645 W 33 162948 E 12/04-14 53 0 0 38 35 W 16 16 2 1 5689 W 36 176824 E 12/04-15 53 0 0 36 39 W 16 16 2 1 4607 W 35 141121 V 12/04-16 53 0 0 33 44 W 16 16 2 1 3525 W 33 105418 V 12/04-17 68 2 0 30 51 W 17 26 2 1 2443 W 33 69716 G 12/04-18 68 2 0 29 54 W 20 30 2 1 2352 W 35 70874 G 12/04-19 68 2 0 29 55 W 23 35 2 1 2261 W 37 72032 G 12/04-20 68 2 0 29 55 W 25 38 2 1 2170 W 39 73189 G 12/04-21 68 2 0 29 55 W 26 40 2 1 2090 W 38 68772 G 12/04-22 68 2 0 29 55 W 28 41 2 1 2011 W 37 64354 G 12/04-23 66 2 0 29 55 W 28 41 2 1 1931 W 36 59936 F 12/05-00 66 2 0 29 56 W 28 41 2 1 1978 W 37 62615 G 12/05-01 66 2 0 29 57 W 28 41 2 1 2025 W 37 65294 G 12/05-02 66 2 0 29 58 W 26 40 2 1 2072 W 38 67973 G 12/05-03 66 2 0 29 59 W 25 38 2 1 2075 W 38 68268 G 12/05-04 66 2 0 28 62 W 24 37 2 1 2078 W 38 68562 G 12/05-05 60 7 1 28 63 W 24 37 2 1 2081 W 38 68857 G 12/05-06 60 7 1 28 65 W 25 38 1 12/05-07 60 7 1 29 64 W 26 40 1 12/05-08 60 7 1 31 61 W 26 40 1 12/05-09 60 7 1 34 55 W 25 38 1 12/05-10 60 7 1 38 47 W 23 35 1 12/05-11 66 9 2 41 43 W 22 33 1 12/05-12 66 9 2 43 40 W 24 37 1 12/05-13 66 9 2 43 41 W 26 40 1 12/05-14 66 9 2 41 44 W 28 41 1 12/05-15 66 9 2 38 50 W 24 37 1 12/05-16 66 9 2 35 56 W 21 31 1 12/05-17 74 18 4 32 63 W 18 28 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL MCENDAFFEER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121202.FERNL.01/BOU