FNUS73 KPAH 031407 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 807 AM CST MON DEC 3 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON DECEMBER 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THERE MAY BE ISSUES WITH THE MIXING HEIGHTS AT THE IGNITION TIME...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE. THICKER CLOUDS THIS MORNING COULD DELAY MIXING...SO IT MAY BE BEST TO WAIT A BIT LONGER THAN THE HOURLY DATA INDICATE. WITH DEEPER MIXING...TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CRANK UP TOWARD 40 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WETTING RAINS. THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........65 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................77 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 12 MPH AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO A MAX OF 6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 36 TO 40 MPH. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 67 69 70 71 72 73 71 70 RH..............77 74 69 66 63 60 57 61 62 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 11 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 30 30 35 35 30 30 25 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 2.2 3.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 6.5 6.0 5.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW SW S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.22 28 33 37 39 40 39 38 36 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 56. RH..................MAX 82 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 24 TO 32 MPH DECREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 0 TO 7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO WEST 13 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............68 65 64 64 62 60 RH..............66 72 74 72 75 79 20 FT WIND......S 10 S 10 S 9 S 8 SW 7 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 15 15 MIX HGT (FT)....4000 2800 1800 1000 1200 1500 TRANSPORT WIND..S 32 S 24 S 13 S 0 SW 2 W 13 CWR.............0 0 0 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 2 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 60. RH..................MIN 48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................62 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....WIDSPD NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............59 56 57 59 RH..............80 78 63 48 20 FT WIND......W 4G10 NW 6G15 N 6G15 N 6G15 CWR.............60 60 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 3 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121203.OAKWO.01/PAH