FNUS75 KGJT 051021
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK RIVER PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 AM MST WED DEC 5 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE SITE. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF SEASON WITH THE MORNING SURFACE INVERSION
EXPECTED TO BREAK BY 1300. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT
WILL TRAP SMOKE AROUND THE 12000 FOOT LEVEL...EXCEPT IN THE
VICINITY OF SHOWERS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-42 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE.DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 8-14 MPH.
                    LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
                    IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN TRANSITIONING TO GOOD
                    BY 1400. GOOD DISPERSAL CONTINUES UNTIL 1600
                    ...THEN TRANSITIONS BACK TO POOR BY 1800.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-16000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    RISING TO 3400 FT AGL BY 1400. MIXING
                    HEIGHTS START TO FALL AGAIN AFTER 1600.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...LANCE BROYLES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121205.ELKRI.01/GJT