FNUS75 KGJT 110516
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOAT CREEK PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1016 PM MST MON DEC 10 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS DEPARTING WEATHER MAKER WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE ON
TUESDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN WITH THE RIDGE WILL BE
INCREASING THE STABILITY AS MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD.
THESE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
TURN MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A SHORT WINDOW OF LOW END FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BUILDS DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL TURN WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE AS WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSH
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING GOOD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH NOON WITH LOW END FAIR BY 1300
                    FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH NOON THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....9-14 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........76-81%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS NEAR SUNSET AND
                    OVERNIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
                    AT 10 MPH NEAR SUNRISE.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....TERRAIN DRIVEN AT 10 MPH OR LESS BY SUNSET.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 35 TO 40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING
                    TO 4700 FT BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST 30 MPH BY 1300.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...ERIC BRANTINGHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121210.GOATC.01/GJT