FNUS75 KBOU 121440 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 740 AM MST WED DEC 12 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0630 MST ON DECEMBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AND WAVE CLOUDS STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE WILL LET TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AND DRIER WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE FIRE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 19. MAX HUMIDITY........51%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN 14-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35-40 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38. MIN HUMIDITY........28%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0600. 7300-8300 FT AGL AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-35 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST 40-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS AROUND 30. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 10-15 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/12-07 39 0 0 25 68 W 14 35 4 1 678 W 33 19863 P 12/12-08 39 0 0 25 59 W 14 35 4 1 830 W 33 24195 P 12/12-09 39 0 0 26 51 W 14 34 4 1 1364 W 35 42053 F 12/12-10 39 0 0 28 45 W 13 32 4 1 1898 W 36 59912 F 12/12-11 35 0 0 31 39 SW 13 27 4 1 2433 W 37 77770 G 12/12-12 35 0 0 33 34 SW 13 27 4 1 2787 W 40 99554 G 12/12-13 35 0 0 35 30 W 13 30 3 1 3142 W 44 121338 V 12/12-14 35 0 0 34 32 W 13 30 3 1 3497 W 47 143122 V 12/12-15 35 0 0 31 36 W 13 32 3 1 2788 W 44 110134 V 12/12-16 35 0 0 28 42 W 12 32 2 1 2079 W 40 77145 G 12/12-17 39 0 0 26 46 W 12 35 2 1 1370 W 37 44156 F 12/12-18 39 0 0 25 48 W 13 30 2 1 1391 W 38 46160 F 12/12-19 39 0 0 24 49 W 13 30 2 1 1413 W 39 48164 F 12/12-20 39 0 0 24 48 W 14 29 2 1 1434 W 40 50169 F 12/12-21 39 0 0 23 48 W 14 28 2 1 1215 W 39 41654 F 12/12-22 39 0 0 23 47 W 13 27 2 1 996 W 38 33139 P 12/12-23 39 0 0 22 47 W 13 27 2 1 777 W 37 24624 P 12/13-00 39 0 0 22 47 W 14 30 2 1 755 W 37 24185 P 12/13-01 39 0 0 22 47 W 15 35 2 1 734 W 37 23745 P 12/13-02 39 0 0 22 47 W 16 43 2 1 713 W 38 23305 P 12/13-03 39 0 0 22 47 W 16 41 2 1 666 W 36 20741 P 12/13-04 39 0 0 21 48 W 15 39 2 1 619 W 33 18177 P 12/13-05 32 0 0 19 51 W 12 35 2 1 572 W 31 15613 P 12/13-06 32 0 0 20 49 W 10 26 2 1 1106 W 32 31279 P 12/13-07 32 0 0 21 48 W 10 16 2 1 1641 W 32 46945 F 12/13-08 32 0 0 24 44 W 6 6 2 1 2175 W 33 62611 G 12/13-09 32 0 0 28 38 W 5 5 2 1 4111 W 35 129196 V 12/13-10 32 0 0 32 34 SW 6 6 2 1 6048 W 37 195780 E 12/13-11 29 0 0 35 32 SW 7 7 2 1 7984 SW 38 262365 E 12/13-12 29 0 0 38 30 SW 8 8 2 1 8302 SW 39 284913 E 12/13-13 29 0 0 38 30 SW 8 13 2 1 8620 SW 41 307462 E 12/13-14 29 0 0 37 32 SW 8 13 2 1 8937 SW 43 330010 E 12/13-15 29 0 0 35 35 SW 7 7 2 1 7810 SW 41 284302 E 12/13-16 29 0 0 32 38 SW 5 5 2 1 6683 SW 40 238595 E 12/13-17 47 0 0 30 41 SW 3 3 2 1 5556 SW 40 192887 E 12/13-18 47 0 0 28 44 W 3 3 2 1 4242 SW 33 137292 V 12/13-19 47 0 0 27 45 W 3 3 2 1 2928 SW 25 81697 G 12/13-20 47 0 0 26 46 W 3 3 2 1 1613 SW 18 26102 P 12/13-21 47 0 0 25 47 W 3 3 2 1 1496 SW 20 24847 P 12/13-22 47 0 0 25 45 W 3 3 2 1 1378 SW 20 23593 P 12/13-23 53 0 0 25 46 W 3 3 2 1 1260 SW 21 22338 P 12/14-00 53 0 0 25 46 W 3 3 2 1 1077 SW 17 17387 P 12/14-01 53 0 0 24 47 W 2 2 2 1 894 W 15 12437 P 12/14-02 53 0 0 24 48 W 2 2 2 1 711 W 13 7486 P 12/14-03 53 0 0 24 48 W 3 3 2 1 630 W 10 5796 P 12/14-04 53 0 0 23 52 W 3 3 3 1 548 SW 8 4106 P 12/14-05 73 18 4 23 52 W 5 5 3 1 467 SW 6 2416 P 12/14-06 73 18 4 23 52 NW 5 5 3 1 1360 S 9 16722 P 12/14-07 73 18 4 24 50 N 3 3 2 1 2253 SE 13 31027 P 12/14-08 73 18 4 26 46 NE 2 2 2 1 3146 SE 16 45333 F 12/14-09 73 18 4 28 44 E 2 2 2 1 3717 SE 16 53192 F 12/14-10 73 18 4 31 43 SE 2 2 3 1 4288 SE 16 61051 G 12/14-11 73 21 10 33 43 S 2 2 3 1 4860 SE 16 68910 G 12/14-12 73 21 10 35 41 S 2 2 3 1 5352 S 14 64855 G 12/14-13 73 21 10 35 42 S 2 2 3 1 5843 SW 13 60800 G 12/14-14 73 21 10 34 43 S 2 2 3 1 6335 SW 10 56745 F 12/14-15 73 21 10 31 49 SW 2 2 3 1 4721 W 12 43318 F 12/14-16 73 21 10 28 55 CALM 1 3 1 3107 W 12 29892 P 12/14-17 92 24 13 25 63 CALM 1 3 1 1492 NW 13 16466 P 12/14-18 92 24 13 23 69 W 2 2 3 1 1222 NW 14 14363 P 12/14-19 92 24 13 22 73 W 2 2 3 1 951 W 16 12261 P 12/14-20 92 24 13 21 77 W 3 3 3 1 681 W 17 10159 P 12/14-21 92 24 13 21 78 W 3 3 3 1 1157 W 20 22481 P 12/14-22 92 24 13 21 78 W 3 3 3 1 1633 W 23 34802 P 12/14-23 85 24 13 20 81 W 3 3 3 1 2110 W 25 47123 F 12/15-00 85 24 13 19 82 W 3 3 3 1 1995 W 26 45539 F 12/15-01 85 24 13 18 83 W 3 3 3 1 1880 W 26 43954 F 12/15-02 85 24 13 18 80 W 3 3 3 1 1765 W 28 42369 F 12/15-03 85 24 13 18 78 W 3 3 3 1 1910 W 26 43869 F 12/15-04 85 24 13 18 76 W 5 5 3 1 2054 W 25 45369 F 12/15-05 74 22 11 18 74 W 6 6 3 1 2199 W 24 46868 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...KRIEDERMAN REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHAMP ICT3 T TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121212.FERNL.01/BOU