FNUS75 KBOU 131051 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 336 AM MST THU DEC 13 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1828 MST ON DECEMBER 12. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE VERY GOOD AFTER 1100. IT WILL WINDY FOR ONE MORE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER ON FRIDAY AND MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. IT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSES THE STATE. A STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36-38. MIN HUMIDITY........28-30%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH UNTIL 0900. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2500-3500 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4900-5900 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 2500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20. MAX HUMIDITY........47-52%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-35. MIN HUMIDITY........33-36%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0600...THEN 4500-5500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN EAST. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1600. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS AROUND 30. WEST WINDS 11-16 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10-12 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 12-15 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/13-03 51 0 0 20 51 W 20 32 410 W 29 10302 P 12/13-04 51 0 0 19 52 W 17 28 393 W 26 9232 P 12/13-05 48 0 0 19 51 W 15 24 377 W 25 8161 P 12/13-06 48 0 0 20 50 W 13 21 494 W 24 9900 P 12/13-07 48 0 0 21 48 W 12 18 610 W 22 11639 P 12/13-08 48 0 0 24 44 W 10 16 727 W 21 13378 P 12/13-09 48 0 0 27 40 W 9 15 2243 W 25 58418 12/13-10 48 0 0 31 35 SW 9 15 3758 SW 29 103459 V 12/13-11 51 0 0 34 32 SW 9 15 5274 SW 32 148499 V 12/13-12 51 0 0 36 30 SW 10 16 5611 SW 32 159449 E 12/13-13 51 0 0 36 30 SW 10 16 5948 SW 33 170399 E 12/13-14 51 0 0 35 32 SW 10 16 6285 SW 33 181349 E 12/13-15 51 0 0 33 34 SW 9 14 4374 SW 25 122486 V 12/13-16 51 0 0 30 38 SW 7 7 2462 SW 17 63623 G 12/13-17 51 1 0 27 42 SW 5 5 550 SW 10 4760 P 12/13-18 51 1 0 25 45 SW 3 3 488 SW 8 3699 P 12/13-19 51 1 0 24 46 W 3 3 425 SW 7 2639 P 12/13-20 51 1 0 23 48 W 3 3 362 S 5 1578 P 12/13-21 51 1 0 22 49 W 3 3 344 SW 7 1984 P 12/13-22 51 1 0 21 50 W 5 5 326 SW 8 2390 P 12/13-23 50 4 1 21 49 W 5 5 309 SW 10 2796 P 12/14-00 50 4 1 21 49 W 5 5 338 SW 13 3872 P 12/14-01 50 4 1 21 49 W 6 6 368 W 15 4948 P 12/14-02 50 4 1 21 49 W 6 6 397 W 17 6025 P 12/14-03 50 4 1 21 49 W 6 6 380 W 15 4909 P 12/14-04 50 4 1 20 51 W 5 5 363 W 12 3793 P 12/14-05 71 13 3 20 52 W 5 5 345 W 9 2678 P 12/14-06 71 13 3 26 41 SW 6 6 1307 SW 9 11836 P 12/14-07 71 13 3 29 37 S 7 7 2268 S 10 20994 P 12/14-08 71 13 3 31 36 SE 8 13 3229 SE 10 30153 P 12/14-09 71 13 3 32 37 E 8 14 3513 SE 12 36246 P 12/14-10 71 13 3 32 40 NE 8 14 3796 E 13 42338 12/14-11 82 35 13 31 45 NE 8 13 4079 E 14 48431 12/14-12 82 35 13 32 45 NE 7 7 4619 E 12 45020 12/14-13 82 35 13 33 44 NE 7 7 5158 E 9 41609 12/14-14 82 35 13 35 42 NE 6 6 5698 E 8 38198 P 12/14-15 82 35 13 35 42 N 6 6 5577 E 10 49871 12/14-16 82 35 13 35 42 NW 5 5 5457 N 13 61545 G 12/14-17 85 36 14 34 43 W 6 6 5336 N 16 73219 G 12/14-18 85 36 14 34 45 W 8 13 5328 NW 21 94170 G 12/14-19 85 36 14 34 46 W 10 17 5320 NW 25 115121 V 12/14-20 85 36 14 33 49 W 13 21 5312 NW 30 136072 V 12/14-21 85 36 14 31 54 W 14 22 4565 NW 31 119912 V 12/14-22 85 36 14 28 61 W 14 22 3819 NW 32 103752 V 12/14-23 76 35 13 27 63 W 14 22 3072 NW 33 87592 G 12/15-00 76 35 13 26 64 W 15 23 3086 W 36 95334 G 12/15-01 76 35 13 27 60 W 16 25 3100 W 38 103077 V 12/15-02 76 35 13 27 58 W 16 25 3114 W 41 110819 V 12/15-03 76 35 13 26 57 W 15 24 2743 W 41 98060 G 12/15-04 76 35 13 25 57 W 14 23 2372 W 41 85301 G 12/15-05 72 28 8 23 60 W 14 22 2000 W 41 72543 G 12/15-06 72 28 8 21 64 W 15 24 1822 W 38 61979 G 12/15-07 72 28 8 20 67 W 16 25 1643 W 36 51415 12/15-08 72 28 8 21 65 W 17 28 1465 W 32 40851 12/15-09 72 28 8 23 61 W 17 28 2189 W 31 56356 12/15-10 72 28 8 26 54 W 16 26 2914 W 29 71861 G 12/15-11 78 34 13 28 51 W 16 25 3639 W 28 87366 G 12/15-12 78 34 13 29 48 W 16 26 4219 W 26 95224 G 12/15-13 78 34 13 29 47 W 16 26 4799 W 25 103082 V 12/15-14 78 34 13 28 48 W 16 25 5379 W 24 110940 V 12/15-15 78 34 13 27 52 W 15 24 5135 W 23 102990 V 12/15-16 78 34 13 25 58 W 14 22 4891 W 22 95041 G 12/15-17 87 32 11 24 62 W 13 21 4647 W 22 87092 G 12/15-18 87 32 11 23 65 W 12 20 4658 W 22 89032 G 12/15-19 87 32 11 22 67 W 12 18 4668 W 22 90972 G 12/15-20 87 32 11 22 65 W 12 18 4679 W 23 92912 G 12/15-21 87 32 11 21 65 W 13 20 4419 W 23 89019 G 12/15-22 87 32 11 20 65 W 13 21 4159 W 24 85126 G 12/15-23 62 36 14 19 65 W 14 22 3899 W 24 81234 G 12/16-00 62 36 14 18 65 W 14 23 3378 W 24 69696 G 12/16-01 62 36 14 17 66 W 14 23 2857 W 23 58159 12/16-02 62 36 14 15 70 W 14 22 2336 W 23 46621 12/16-03 62 36 14 14 73 W 13 21 2296 W 24 48030 12/16-04 62 36 14 14 73 W 13 20 2257 W 25 49440 12/16-05 71 22 4 14 73 W 12 18 2218 W 26 50849 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...COOPER REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHAMP ICT4 TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121212.FERNL.02/BOU