FNUS75 KGJT 121610
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GOAT CREEK PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
910 AM MST WED DEC 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING MILDER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
SUBSIDENCE AT AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THOUGH WILL LIMIT MIXING
AND THUS SMOKE DISPERSAL. THIS IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY...
WILL THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ONTO THE BURN
SITE. ANALYZING THE BALLOON RELEASES FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND GRAND
JUNCTION SAYS NO. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE SITE WILL
STILL SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
MIXING WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-41 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH THIS
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT AFTER 1700...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-20 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........51-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX OF 20000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...ERIC BRANTINGHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121212.GOATC.01/GJT