FNUS75 KGJT 121629
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GREEN GRIZZLY PILES...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
929 AM MST WED DEC 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MILDER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE AT AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THOUGH WILL LIMIT
MIXING AND THUS SMOKE DISPERSAL. THIS IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY... WILL THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ONTO
THE BURN SITE? ANALYZING THE BALLOON RELEASE FROM GRAND JUNCTION
SAYS NO. BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE SITE WILL STILL
SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOONS. ANY MIXING
WILL SHUT DOWN QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 3-8 MPH WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
                    20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-10 WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 22 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...ROSS OXFORD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121212.GREEN.02/GJT