FNUS75 KGJT 120543
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TOMICHI CREEK...U.S. FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1043 PM MST TUE DEC 11 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MST ON DECEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TODAY BRINGING IN A CORRIDOR OF
FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT LOW OF WHEN THESE
WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE ELEVATION OF THE BURN SITE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WESTERLY WINDS MAY BE OVERCOMING THE DOWNVALLEY WINDS BY
SUNRISE SO FORECAST HAS WESTERLY WINDS TO START. AS MIXING INCREASES
THROUGH THE MORNING...THE WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST THROUGH BY NOON AND COULD BECOME QUITE GUSTY AS MIXING TAPS
INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.
THESE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NOON AT 15 TO 20 MPH FEW
                    GUST NEAR 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO VERY
                    GOOD BY NOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 3900 FT BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 35 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THROUGH MID MORNING
                    THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH MID MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD BY MID AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 32 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JERRY CHONKA
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121212.TOMIC.01/GJT