FNUS73 KLSX 121353
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAHAM CAVE GLADES...MODNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
753 AM CST WED DEC 12 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CST ON DECEMBER 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TRANSPORT A WARMER AIR MASS INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. THERE IS ALSO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT ON BOTH DAYS. THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOMORROW BUT THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY COMPARED TO TODAY.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 50.
RH..................29 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 21 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WIND 2 TO 3 MPH USING 0.3 ADJUSTMENT FACTOR.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 9 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND DURING MID MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 6
                    TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...2400 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (5656 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27.
RH..................MAX 68 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 8 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 TO 4 MPH USING AN ADJUSTMENT FACTOR OF 0.3.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 9 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....FAIR (6913 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...TES
REQUESTED BY...BRUCE SCHUETTE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121212.GRAHA.01/LSX