FNUS75 KBOU 141151 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 448 AM MST FRI DEC 14 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1806 MST ON DECEMBER 13. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 1500. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MIN HUMIDITY........47%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHEAST. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 20. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN WEST 11-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 1500-2500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1000-2000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST 25-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 2300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0400...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................10 PERCENT. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29. MIN HUMIDITY........53%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 20-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0600. 4800-5800 FT AGL AFTER 1000. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1000. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................15 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 13-21 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 13. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 13-18 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 12-17 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/14-04 63 0 0 23 53 W 5 5 376 W 10 3393 P 12/14-05 72 14 2 23 54 W 5 5 376 W 9 3085 P 12/14-06 72 14 2 24 52 5 411 SW 7 2550 P 12/14-07 72 14 2 25 51 6 446 S 6 2014 P 12/14-08 79 14 2 26 50 SE 2 6 481 S 3 1478 P 12/14-09 79 14 2 29 48 6 1842 SE 6 12817 P 12/14-10 79 14 2 32 47 6 3204 SE 7 24155 P 12/14-11 89 39 14 34 47 E 6 6 4565 E 9 35493 P 12/14-12 89 39 14 35 47 6 4364 E 7 27828 P 12/14-13 89 39 14 35 47 5 4162 NE 6 20162 P 12/14-14 89 39 14 33 51 E 5 5 3961 NE 3 12497 P 12/14-15 89 39 14 31 56 5 2819 N 7 10249 P 12/14-16 89 39 14 29 60 6 1678 N 9 8001 P 12/14-17 86 39 12 28 63 NW 6 7 537 N 13 5754 P 12/14-18 86 39 12 27 66 8 2463 NW 17 35331 P 12/14-19 86 39 12 26 70 15 1526 NW 18 22434 P 12/14-20 86 39 12 25 74 W 13 17 588 NW 18 9537 P 12/14-21 86 39 12 25 74 20 1030 NW 21 20246 P 12/14-22 86 39 12 24 76 20 1472 W 23 30954 P 12/14-23 77 51 4 24 74 W 14 21 1914 W 25 41663 12/15-00 77 51 4 23 76 22 1941 W 28 46136 12/15-01 77 51 4 24 70 23 1968 W 30 50609 12/15-02 77 51 4 23 71 W 16 24 1995 W 32 55082 12/15-03 77 51 4 24 66 23 1625 W 32 45025 12/15-04 77 51 4 23 67 23 1256 W 32 34969 P 12/15-05 72 39 17 20 77 W 23 37 886 W 32 24912 P 12/15-06 72 39 17 21 71 W 23 37 1492 W 31 38126 P 12/15-07 72 39 17 23 63 W 23 37 2098 W 29 51339 12/15-08 72 39 17 26 55 SW 23 37 2704 W 28 64553 G 12/15-09 72 39 17 28 53 W 23 37 3686 W 25 77943 G 12/15-10 72 39 17 29 53 W 22 36 4667 W 23 91332 G 12/15-11 92 50 26 29 55 W 22 35 5649 W 22 104722 V 12/15-12 92 50 26 29 54 W 22 35 5712 W 22 110931 V 12/15-13 92 50 26 28 54 W 22 35 5775 W 23 117140 V 12/15-14 92 50 26 28 53 W 22 35 5838 W 24 123349 V 12/15-15 92 50 26 27 57 W 23 36 5574 W 26 127578 V 12/15-16 92 50 26 26 62 W 23 37 5310 W 29 131806 V 12/15-17 87 50 26 25 65 W 23 37 5046 W 31 136035 V 12/15-18 87 50 26 24 65 W 21 33 4808 W 33 139252 V 12/15-19 87 50 26 23 63 W 18 30 4570 W 36 142470 V 12/15-20 87 41 18 23 60 W 16 25 4332 W 39 145687 V 12/15-21 87 41 18 22 61 W 15 24 4412 W 40 153481 E 12/15-22 87 41 18 21 63 W 15 24 4491 W 41 161274 E 12/15-23 68 20 4 20 65 W 15 24 4571 W 43 169067 E 12/16-00 68 20 4 18 67 W 15 25 3986 W 43 148603 V 12/16-01 68 20 4 16 70 W 16 26 3400 W 44 128139 V 12/16-02 68 20 4 15 70 W 17 28 2815 W 44 107675 V 12/16-03 68 20 4 15 69 W 17 29 2844 W 46 113857 V 12/16-04 68 20 4 16 67 W 18 29 2874 W 48 120039 V 12/16-05 71 18 4 17 64 W 18 30 2903 W 49 126222 V 12/16-06 71 18 4 17 63 W 20 31 2889 W 51 126635 V 12/16-07 71 18 4 16 65 W 20 32 2875 W 51 127048 V 12/16-08 71 18 4 17 61 W 21 33 2861 W 52 127461 V 12/16-09 71 18 4 20 55 W 21 33 4319 W 51 187207 E 12/16-10 71 18 4 25 46 W 21 33 5776 W 49 246953 E 12/16-11 72 22 4 28 42 W 21 33 7234 W 48 306699 E 12/16-12 72 22 4 29 41 W 21 33 7944 W 49 343510 E 12/16-13 72 22 4 28 43 W 22 35 8654 W 51 380320 E 12/16-14 72 22 4 27 44 W 22 35 9364 W 52 417130 E 12/16-15 72 22 4 24 50 W 22 35 8288 W 53 376614 E 12/16-16 72 22 4 23 52 W 21 33 7212 W 54 336098 E 12/16-17 87 32 11 21 57 W 20 31 6135 W 55 295582 E 12/16-18 87 32 11 21 56 W 18 30 5646 W 55 271187 E 12/16-19 87 32 11 22 53 W 18 29 5157 W 55 246792 E 12/16-20 87 32 11 21 54 W 17 28 4667 W 55 222397 E 12/16-21 87 32 11 20 56 W 16 26 3945 W 54 187437 E 12/16-22 87 32 11 19 59 W 15 24 3223 W 54 152477 E 12/16-23 76 20 4 16 67 W 15 24 2501 W 54 117517 V 12/17-00 76 20 4 14 72 W 15 24 2105 W 51 94749 G 12/17-01 76 20 4 13 74 W 15 24 1710 W 47 71982 G 12/17-02 76 20 4 13 73 W 16 25 1315 W 43 49214 12/17-03 76 20 4 14 70 W 17 28 1380 W 46 56019 12/17-04 76 20 4 15 67 W 17 29 1446 W 49 62824 G 12/17-05 77 23 5 17 61 W 18 30 1511 W 53 69629 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...RPK REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHAMP ICT4 TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121213.FERNL.01/BOU