FNUS74 KLIX 140302 FWSLIX SPOT FORECAST FOR CPT G-11NE-15N...U.S. FWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 902 PM CST THU DEC 13 2012 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AN ADVANCING LOW TO THE WEST WILL THEN BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. 1. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED AT KPQL THIS EVENING...AS COLD AIR DRAINING DOWN THE PASCAGOULA RIVER VALLEY HAS CREATED A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THIS HAS CUT OFF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN CALM CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT. THE OVERALL RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING IS VERY HIGH. HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT... THERE WILL BE ANOTHER VERY HIGH RISK OF FOG. THE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DENSE...DUE TO WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE COOL WATERS JUST OF THE COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AIR TO CONDENSE OUT...RESULTING IN FOG FORMATION. 2. SINCE OUR PHONE CALL...I HAVE REVIEWED THE DEWPOINT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE DAY...AND REALIZED IT WAS THE LOWER 40S. FORECASTED LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S WILL BE WELL BELOW THE CRITICAL CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S. AS A RESULT...THE RISK OF FOG IS MUCH HIGHER...AND NOW EXPECT TO SEE FOG BEGIN FORMING AROUND 11 PM AND LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS. AS TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE TO ABOVE 15 MPH AFTER 3 OR 4 AM...THE FOG RISK WILL DECREASE. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE BEFORE THIS OCCURS...WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. 3. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE DOMINATED BY DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE PASCAGOULA BASIN...AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. EXPECT TO SEE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 3 MPH OR LESS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH MID-MORNING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND GUSTS THROUGH SUNRISE...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ATMOSPHERIC DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. ONCE THE SUN RISES...AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS...THE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO DEVELOP. THESE WIND GUSTS COULD JUMP UP TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO TURN MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW AND RETREATING HIGH. 4. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST HAS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE WEAK BOUNDARY ALOFT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. .TONIGHT... TIME (CST) 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............44 42 40 38 38 38 37 37 37 36 RH..............89 96 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 DEWPOINT........41 41 40 38 38 38 37 37 37 36 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE NE NE E E E E E E TRANSP WIND SPD.7 9 9 9 14 14 14 16 16 16 TRANS SPD (M/S).3 4 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 DISPERSION......18 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........18 18 18 18 18 18 44 44 44 44 44 44 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............36 36 42 47 52 57 62 63 63 64 61 58 RH..............100 100 100 93 80 67 58 58 58 58 65 75 DEWPOINT........36 36 42 45 46 46 47 48 48 49 49 50 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E E E E SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.2 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E SE SE SE TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 16 14 14 14 10 10 10 9 9 9 TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 DISPERSION......3 3 3 8 8 21 24 22 22 12 13 13 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY NIGHT... TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........66 66 66 66 66 66 70 70 70 70 70 70 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............55 54 53 53 52 51 50 50 50 50 50 50 RH..............83 86 93 89 86 86 89 93 93 96 100 100 DEWPOINT........50 50 51 50 48 47 47 48 48 49 50 50 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 MIX HGT (KM)....0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 10 14 14 14 17 17 17 16 16 16 TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 7 7 7 DISPERSION......13 13 13 18 18 18 8 8 8 7 7 7 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 $$ FORECASTER...GRIGSBY REQUESTED BY...TONY WILDER TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20121213.CPTG1.02/LIX