FNUS75 KGJT 140633
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FIRE MOUNTAIN...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1133 PM MST THU DEC 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MST ON DECEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNRISE AND MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN DOWNVALLEY WINDS WILL KEEP MIXING HEIGHTS AND WINDS
LOW ENOUGH THAT POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL RESULT. MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE SMOKE
DISPERSAL INTO THE LOW END FAIR CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SET UP AGAIN AND PUSH THE SMOKE INTO THE
VALLEY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-42 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY AT 4 TO 9 MPH THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING BECOMING LOW END FAIR
                    BY 1400 FOR A FEW HOURS AS WINDS BECOME
                    SOUTHWEST.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
                    INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...STEVE MUELLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121214.FIREM.01/GJT