FNUS75 KGJT 140636
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PTARMAGAN PILES...VAIL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1136 PM MST THU DEC 13 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON DECEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER THE BURN SITE AS
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SITE FROM MID-AFTERNOON ONWARDS. THIS SNOWFALL AND ALSO
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LIFT MIXING LEVELS CAUSING GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSAL BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE SUN SETS A FEW
HOURS LATER...A RETURN TO POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL IS EXPECTED.
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
BRINGING SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS SEEN TODAY WITH VERY GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSAL EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY 2 PM.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 1050.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5900 FT AGL BY 2 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....8-13 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 12 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
CLEARING INDEX......300 INCREASING TO 400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....17-22 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 12 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 5 MPH LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 2PM.
CLEARING INDEX......300 INCREASING TO 1050.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300 FT AGL BY
                    2 PM.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...T  TALBOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121214.PTARM.01/GJT