FNUS73 KLSX 141443
FWSLSX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CUB CREEK...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
843 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON DECEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
FUEL MOISTURE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 7-8 PERCENT RANGE
TODAY.  LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS BELOW 30 PERCENT AT MAX
HEATING.  RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS LESS THAN
1000FT AGL THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE POOR VENTILATION RATES.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........41 AT IGNITION...MAX 55.
RH..................57 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....WINDS SOUTH AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND DURING MID MORNING BECOMING SOUTH
                    2 TO 4 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND...20 FT........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WIND DURING MID MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 5
                    TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...
                    2000 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 22 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (5970 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................70 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 43.
RH..................MAX 93 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTH WIND 3 TO 5 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTH WIND 9 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........N/A.
MIXING HEIGHT.......N/A.
TRANSPORT WIND......N/A.
VENTILATION RATE....N/A.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61.
RH..................MIN 61 PERCENT.
WIND...EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST WIND 4 TO 6 MPH.  GUSTS UP TO 8 MPH.
WIND...20 FT........SOUTHWEST WIND 14 TO 19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT MAX HEATING.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 41 MPH.
VENTILATION RATE....GOOD (13071 M 2/S) AT MAX HEATING.

$$

FORECASTER...BRITT
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS WOODS  DFMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20121214.CUBCR.02/LSX