FNUS75 KBOU 161445 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 745 AM MST SUN DEC 16 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1555 MST ON DECEMBER 15. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AT THE BURN SITE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY...AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES VERY STRONG. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE SPINE OF THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASE IN THE FLOW...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE STATE. AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE BURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL DROP WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS AT NIGHT. HUMIDITY READINGS WILL BE MODERATE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28. MIN HUMIDITY........49%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 40-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................25 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2300...THEN SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 15. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 13-22 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN 26-29 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6300-7300 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1700 FT AGL AFTER 0400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 50-60 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2100. GOOD AFTER 0300. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................50 PERCENT INCREASING TO 75 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 1100. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1100. CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28. MIN HUMIDITY........45%. WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 22-29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 50-60 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. CWR.................25 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-21 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...COLDER...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS NEAR ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 19. WEST WINDS 12-17 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR TF RH 20FT G H L MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L AGL MPH KT-FT 12/16-07 89 50 26 19 67 W 28 41 2 1 4040 W 40 143404 V 12/16-08 91 50 26 21 62 W 28 41 2 1 4139 W 41 150159 E 12/16-09 91 50 26 23 58 W 29 44 2 1 4937 W 43 186810 E 12/16-10 91 50 26 25 54 W 30 45 2 1 5735 W 45 223461 E 12/16-11 100 67 48 27 50 W 30 45 2 1 6533 W 46 260112 E 12/16-12 100 67 48 28 49 W 28 41 2 1 7168 W 46 283274 E 12/16-13 100 67 48 27 51 W 24 36 2 1 7802 W 45 306437 E 12/16-14 100 67 48 26 53 W 21 31 2 1 8437 W 45 329599 E 12/16-15 100 67 48 24 56 W 17 26 2 1 8107 W 46 324451 E 12/16-16 100 67 48 22 59 W 15 23 2 1 7777 W 47 319303 E 12/16-17 100 69 51 20 62 W 15 23 2 1 7448 W 48 314154 E 12/16-18 100 69 51 18 65 W 18 28 2 1 6760 W 52 299445 E 12/16-19 100 69 51 17 66 W 24 36 2 1 6073 W 54 284737 E 12/16-20 100 69 51 17 64 W 29 44 2 1 5386 W 58 270028 E 12/16-21 100 69 51 16 67 W 31 46 2 1 4747 W 55 231995 E 12/16-22 100 69 51 15 70 W 32 48 2 1 4109 W 54 193962 E 12/16-23 93 85 76 15 70 W 32 48 2 1 3470 W 52 155929 E 12/17-00 93 85 76 15 70 W 32 48 2 1 3060 W 52 136803 V 12/17-01 93 85 76 16 67 W 32 48 2 1 2650 W 51 117677 V 12/17-02 93 85 76 16 67 W 32 48 2 1 2240 W 51 98551 G 12/17-03 93 85 76 16 67 W 32 48 2 1 1966 W 51 86494 G 12/17-04 93 85 76 16 67 W 32 49 3 1 1692 W 51 74437 G 12/17-05 89 46 23 16 67 W 32 48 3 1 1418 W 51 62381 G 12/17-06 89 46 23 17 64 W 31 46 3 1 1527 W 52 68765 G 12/17-07 89 46 23 18 61 W 29 43 3 1 1637 W 53 75150 G 12/17-08 89 46 23 20 56 W 26 40 3 1 1746 W 54 81534 G 12/17-09 89 46 23 22 53 W 25 38 3 1 2053 W 55 98327 G 12/17-10 89 46 23 24 51 W 25 38 3 1 2359 W 56 115120 V 12/17-11 88 33 12 26 48 W 25 38 3 1 2666 W 56 131913 V 12/17-12 88 33 12 27 47 W 25 38 3 1 3246 W 58 162181 E 12/17-13 88 33 12 28 45 W 25 38 2 1 3826 W 58 192448 E 12/17-14 88 33 12 28 46 W 25 38 2 1 4406 W 59 222716 E 12/17-15 88 33 12 26 53 W 25 37 2 1 3607 W 54 175628 E 12/17-16 88 33 12 23 63 W 24 36 2 1 2807 W 51 128540 V 12/17-17 66 67 48 22 68 W 23 35 2 1 2007 W 47 81451 G 12/17-18 66 67 48 22 68 W 22 32 2 1 2692 W 46 108384 V 12/17-19 66 67 48 23 64 W 20 30 2 1 3378 W 46 135316 V 12/17-20 66 67 48 24 60 W 18 30 2 1 4063 W 46 162249 E 12/17-21 66 67 48 23 62 W 17 29 2 1 3352 W 44 130090 V 12/17-22 66 67 48 21 66 W 17 28 2 1 2641 W 41 97931 G 12/17-23 58 67 48 20 68 W 17 28 2 1 1930 W 39 65772 G 12/18-00 58 67 48 19 67 W 17 26 2 1 1822 W 37 59170 F 12/18-01 58 67 48 18 66 W 16 26 2 1 1715 W 35 52569 F 12/18-02 58 67 48 18 64 W 16 25 2 1 1607 W 33 45968 F 12/18-03 58 67 48 17 68 SW 16 25 2 1 1478 W 31 40328 F 12/18-04 58 67 48 16 74 SW 16 25 2 1 1349 W 29 34689 P 12/18-05 63 67 48 16 77 SW 16 25 2 1 1220 W 28 29049 P 12/18-06 63 67 48 15 83 SW 16 25 2 1 1409 W 30 37644 P 12/18-07 63 67 48 15 85 SW 16 25 2 1 1599 W 32 46239 F 12/18-08 63 67 48 17 80 SW 16 25 2 1 1788 W 36 54834 F 12/18-09 63 67 48 21 70 SW 17 26 2 1 3090 W 38 108466 V 12/18-10 63 67 48 25 61 SW 17 29 2 1 4392 W 40 162099 E 12/18-11 73 67 48 30 51 SW 18 30 2 1 5694 W 44 215731 E 12/18-12 73 67 48 32 48 SW 18 30 2 1 5942 W 43 218052 E 12/18-13 73 67 48 33 47 SW 18 30 2 1 6189 W 41 220372 E 12/18-14 73 67 48 32 49 SW 18 30 2 1 6436 W 40 222693 E 12/18-15 73 67 48 30 53 SW 18 29 2 1 5590 W 38 188792 E 12/18-16 73 67 48 28 58 SW 17 28 2 1 4744 W 37 154891 E 12/18-17 87 48 24 26 63 SW 16 25 2 1 3898 SW 36 120990 V 12/18-18 87 48 24 24 67 SW 15 24 2 1 3712 SW 35 113317 V 12/18-19 87 48 24 24 66 SW 14 22 2 1 3526 SW 35 105645 V 12/18-20 87 48 24 24 65 SW 13 21 2 1 3340 SW 33 97972 G 12/18-21 87 48 24 23 67 SW 12 18 2 1 3340 SW 30 87499 G 12/18-22 87 48 24 23 66 SW 10 17 2 1 3339 SW 26 77026 G 12/18-23 91 51 27 22 68 SW 9 15 2 1 3338 SW 23 66554 G 12/19-00 91 51 27 21 69 S 7 7 2 1 3241 SW 20 54263 F 12/19-01 91 51 27 20 70 S 6 6 2 1 3143 SW 15 41973 F 12/19-02 91 51 27 20 68 S 5 5 2 1 3045 SW 12 29683 P 12/19-03 91 51 27 19 68 SE 5 5 2 1 3199 S 9 25698 P 12/19-04 91 51 27 19 66 SE 6 6 2 1 3353 S 8 21713 P 12/19-05 91 50 26 18 67 E 7 7 2 1 3507 S 6 17729 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH REQUESTED BY...TOM DILLON ICT4 T TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121215.FERNL.01/BOU