FNUS75 KBOU 171457 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 745 AM MST MON DEC 17 2012 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1453 MST ON DECEMBER 16. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...POWERFUL JET STREAM WINDS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BATCH OF MOIST PACIFIC AIR LATER TODAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN COLORADO. THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND VERY GUSTY WEST WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND OPEN AREAS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. THE WILDFIRE MAY ESCAPE SOME OF THE STRONG WIND TODAY. HOWEVER BY TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF AN ESPECIALLY STRONG JET STREAM PASSES OVERHEAD...THE WILDFIRE COULD SEE GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 65 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...SNOWFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY BECOME HEAVY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE PARK IN MOUNTAIN AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LIGHT SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY. SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29. MIN HUMIDITY........58%. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 20-32 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 60-65 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................35 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLY HEAVY UNTIL 0100... THEN LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 15. MAX HUMIDITY........88-94%. WIND (20 FT)........VERY WINDY. WEST WINDS 22-32 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DECREASING TO 40 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 2100-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 45-55 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN 35-45 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 2200. GOOD AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................70 PERCENT INCREASING TO 85 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. WINDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33. MIN HUMIDITY........42-48%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5500-6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 30-35 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0900...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW. CWR.................60 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. FEEDBACK WELCOME. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20-FT G H L 10KFT MIXG TRANS VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/17-07 90 58 35 22 60 W 38 61 2 1 WNW 64 2672 W 60138740 V 12/17-08 90 58 35 23 60 W 40 64 2 1 WNW 62 2812 W 60145089 V 12/17-09 90 58 35 24 60 W 39 63 2 1 WNW 66 3383 W 60178210 E 12/17-10 90 58 35 26 59 W 37 60 2 1 WNW 71 3954 W 61211330 E 12/17-11 95 67 48 28 58 W 36 58 2 1 WNW 79 4525 W 62244450 E 12/17-12 95 67 48 29 58 W 37 59 2 1 WNW 90 4758 W 62258117 E 12/17-13 95 67 48 29 60 W 38 61 2 1 WNW100 4991 W 62271784 E 12/17-14 95 67 48 28 63 W 39 62 2 1 WNW109 5225 W 63285451 E 12/17-15 95 67 48 27 65 W 39 62 2 1 WNW115 4805 W 61255296 E 12/17-16 95 67 48 25 70 W 37 60 2 1 WNW117 4386 W 59225140 E 12/17-17 95 81 70 24 71 W 36 58 2 1 WNW117 3967 W 56194985 E 12/17-18 95 81 70 24 69 W 33 54 2 1 WNW114 4051 W 55193929 E 12/17-19 95 81 70 24 67 W 32 51 2 1 WNW109 4135 W 54192873 E 12/17-20 95 81 70 24 65 W 30 48 2 1 W105 4219 W 52191817 E 12/17-21 95 81 70 23 67 W 29 46 2 1 W106 3628 W 49159984 E 12/17-22 95 81 70 21 72 W 29 45 2 1 W108 3037 W 47128151 V 12/17-23 97 91 86 19 77 W 28 44 2 1 W110 2446 W 45 96318 G 12/18-00 97 91 86 18 77 W 26 44 2 1 W108 2444 W 43 89559 G 12/18-01 97 91 86 18 73 W 26 43 2 1 W105 2442 W 39 82799 G 12/18-02 97 91 86 18 70 W 25 40 2 1 W101 2440 W 36 76039 G 12/18-03 97 91 86 17 74 W 24 38 2 1 W104 2294 W 36 70712 G 12/18-04 97 91 86 17 75 W 23 36 2 1 W106 2149 W 35 65386 G 12/18-05 92 75 60 16 80 WSW 21 33 2 1 W106 2003 W 35 60059 G 12/18-06 92 75 60 15 85 WSW 18 30 2 1 W107 2080 W 33 60923 G 12/18-07 92 75 60 15 86 WSW 16 26 2 1 W106 2156 W 33 61787 G 12/18-08 92 75 60 17 80 WSW 15 24 2 1 W105 2233 W 32 62651 G 12/18-09 92 75 60 21 70 WSW 15 23 2 1 W101 3619 WSW 33110707 V 12/18-10 92 75 60 26 58 WSW 15 23 2 1 W 98 5006 WSW 36158762 E 12/18-11 91 75 60 31 49 WSW 15 24 2 1 W 96 6393 WSW 37206817 E 12/18-12 91 75 60 33 46 SW 15 24 2 1 W 93 6539 WSW 37208156 E 12/18-13 91 75 60 33 47 SW 15 23 2 1 WSW 91 6685 WSW 36209495 E 12/18-14 91 75 60 32 49 SW 14 22 2 1 WSW 90 6831 WSW 36210833 E 12/18-15 91 75 60 30 51 SW 13 20 2 1 WSW 89 5995 WSW 35179156 E 12/18-16 91 75 60 28 53 SSW 10 17 2 1 WSW 87 5160 SW 32147478 V 12/18-17 98 66 47 26 55 SSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 86 4325 SW 31115800 V 12/18-18 98 66 47 24 59 SSW 9 15 2 1 WSW 82 3672 SW 30 96562 G 12/18-19 98 66 47 23 62 SSW 10 16 2 1 WSW 77 3020 SW 29 77324 G 12/18-20 98 66 47 23 62 SSW 10 16 2 1 WSW 74 2368 SW 29 58085 F 12/18-21 98 66 47 22 64 SSW 10 16 2 1 WSW 73 2520 SW 25 55291 F 12/18-22 98 66 47 21 64 SW 9 15 2 1 WSW 71 2673 SW 23 52498 F 12/18-23 91 58 35 21 62 SW 8 13 2 1 WSW 71 2826 WSW 21 49704 F 12/19-00 91 58 35 20 62 S 7 7 2 1 WSW 68 2503 SSW 15 35000 P 12/19-01 91 58 35 19 61 SE 6 6 2 1 SW 64 2181 S 9 20297 P 12/19-02 91 58 35 19 59 ESE 6 6 2 1 SW 61 1858 SE 3 5593 P 12/19-03 91 58 35 18 61 E 6 6 2 1 SW 61 2328 ESE 3 7974 P 12/19-04 91 58 35 18 60 E 7 7 2 1 SW 61 2798 E 5 10356 P 12/19-05 91 64 44 18 59 ENE 8 13 2 1 WSW 60 3268 ENE 5 12737 P 12/19-06 91 64 44 17 57 ENE 9 15 2 1 SW 55 3334 ENE 8 24784 P 12/19-07 91 64 44 16 54 NE 12 18 3 1 SW 49 3400 NE 13 36830 P 12/19-08 91 64 44 16 51 NE 13 21 3 1 SW 44 3466 NE 16 48877 F 12/19-09 91 64 44 15 54 NE 14 22 3 1 SW 36 3826 NE 17 57987 F 12/19-10 91 64 44 14 59 NNE 15 23 2 1 SW 28 4185 NNE 18 67097 G 12/19-11 98 56 32 13 64 NNE 15 24 2 1 SW 22 4545 NNE 20 76207 G 12/19-12 98 56 32 13 62 N 14 23 2 1 SW 20 4490 N 21 80888 G 12/19-13 98 56 32 10 67 N 13 21 2 1 WSW 20 4436 NNW 22 85570 G 12/19-14 98 56 32 8 69 NNW 13 21 2 1 W 21 4381 NNW 24 90252 G 12/19-15 98 56 32 7 72 NNW 14 22 2 1 W 21 4315 NW 26 98676 G 12/19-16 98 56 32 6 75 NW 15 24 2 1 W 21 4248 NW 29107100 V 12/19-17 72 23 5 5 76 WNW 16 25 2 1 W 24 4182 NW 32115524 V 12/19-18 72 23 5 3 72 WNW 16 25 2 1 W 31 3747 WNW 33108560 V 12/19-19 72 23 5 1 67 W 15 24 2 1 NW 40 3311 WNW 36101596 V 12/19-20 72 23 5 0 62 W 15 24 2 1 NNW 51 2876 WNW 38 94632 G 12/19-21 72 23 5 -2 66 W 16 26 2 1 NNW 63 2459 WNW 40 84004 G 12/19-22 72 23 5 -3 70 W 18 29 2 1 NNW 75 2042 WNW 43 73377 G 12/19-23 41 0 0 -4 75 W 21 33 2 1 NNW 83 1624 W 45 62750 G 12/20-00 41 0 0 -4 72 W 24 38 3 1 NNW 84 1436 W 45 55995 F 12/20-01 41 0 0 -4 70 W 28 44 3 1 NW 81 1248 W 46 49240 F 12/20-02 41 0 0 -3 65 W 29 46 4 1 NW 76 1060 W 46 42486 F 12/20-03 41 0 0 -3 64 W 28 45 4 1 NW 74 911 W 43 34531 P 12/20-04 41 0 0 -2 62 W 25 41 4 1 NW 71 762 W 39 26577 P 12/20-05 39 1 0 -2 65 W 23 37 3 1 NW 69 613 W 35 18622 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST VALID AT - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20-FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10KFT WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRANS WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER REQUESTED BY...TOM DILLON ICT4 T TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20121216.FERNL.01/BOU